The Matchday 3 clash in Ligue 1 between Toulouse and PSG will take place on August 30 at the Stadium of Toulouse. Toulouse vs. PSG: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Toulouse
The team secured two clean-sheet victories at the start of the championship, defeating Nice (1-0) and Brest (2-0). Toulouse's unbeaten run in Ligue 1 has now extended to six matches (4 wins, 2 draws), with the team finding the net in their last five games. The last time Toulouse began a season in the top French division with two wins was in the 2011/12 campaign, also with clean sheets, finishing in 8th place. After two rounds of the current tournament, the club occupies the 2nd spot in the standings.
- No more than three goals have been scored in 7 of Toulouse's last 8 Ligue 1 matches.
- The team has won with a +1.5 handicap in 15 of their last 16 home matches in this tournament.
- The club has scored in 16 of their last 17 home games in the French championship.
Predicted lineup for Toulouse (3-4-3)
Guillaume Restes – Jaidi Kanwo, Mark McKenzie, Charlie Cresswell – Dejan Metal, Mario Sauer, Christian Casseres, Djibril Sidibe – Frank Magri, Yann Gboho, Aron Donnum.
PSG
The Parisians, like their upcoming opponents, have won both matches of the current Ligue 1 season with clean sheets, defeating Nantes and Angers with minimal margins. The victory in the last round marked PSG's fourth consecutive win in the French championship. Notably, the last time PSG kept a clean sheet in two consecutive Ligue 1 matches was back in November 2024. Additionally, in the previous championship, PSG defeated Toulouse twice without conceding (3-0, 1-0).
- The team has won 14 of their last 17 matches in the elite French division.
- PSG has not scored more than two goals in 7 of their last 9 Ligue 1 matches.
- Both teams scored in 6 of PSG's last 7 away matches in the championship.
Predicted lineup for PSG (4-3-3)
Lucas Chevalier – Nuno Mendes, William Pacho, Marquinhos, Achraf Hakimi – Fabian Ruiz, Vitinha, Joao Neves – Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue.
Goalkeeper Arnau Tenas has transferred to Villarreal.
Referee
Eric Wattellier (France)
Matches – 18 (Ligue 1, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 59;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.3;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 17%.
Match Prediction: Toulouse vs. PSG
The hosts have started the new Ligue 1 season successfully, but in the upcoming match, they will face the toughest opponent in the tournament and the reigning champion, PSG, who also began the championship with two wins. Although PSG's victories were modest in scoreline, they dominated both matches and should have won by larger margins. PSG has a significant reserve and can step up at any moment if the situation demands. Toulouse, on the other hand, did not outperform their opponents in the first two rounds; the matches were evenly matched, and the team was simply more precise in converting their few scoring opportunities.
I don't think the hosts will be able to take points from the reigning champions. Avoiding a heavy defeat is possible, but even a draw will be hard for Toulouse to achieve. PSG has defeated Toulouse in 9 of their last 11 head-to-head matches in the French championship (1 draw, 1 loss), including both meetings in the previous Ligue 1 season. PSG has also won 9 of their last 11 away matches in the elite French division (1 draw, 1 loss). Toulouse, meanwhile, has lost half of their last 10 home matches in the championship, securing only 2 victories. It's worth noting that recent head-to-head encounters between these opponents have not been high-scoring – no more than three goals have been scored in 8 of the last 10 Ligue 1 games.
Therefore, my prediction is PSG win and Total under 3.5 goals.
