The return leg of the 2025/26 Champions League round-of-16 tie between Tottenham Hotspur (England) and Atletico Madrid (Spain) will take place on 18 March at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. The score in the first leg was 5:2 in favour of Atletico Madrid. Tottenham Hotspur vs Atletico Madrid: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Tottenham Hotspur
The 3-match winning run in the Champions League came to an end for Tottenham Hotspur after the defeat in Madrid. The club conceded five goals for the second time in their last five matches in this European competition, although the previous three games had all been clean sheets. The rout came as a surprise, because Tottenham Hotspur had lost only for the second time in 10 matches in this European campaign, and the club had not suffered a heavy defeat in this tournament since March 2020. At the same time, the Londoners have scored at least two goals in six straight Champions League matches. Now, to level the tie on aggregate, they need to win by a margin of three goals or more. There have already been similar examples in this season’s competition, but so far Tottenham Hotspur have only thrashed Slavia Prague (3:0) and Copenhagen (4:0). It is also worth noting that the English side have lost all of their last four two-legged ties against Spanish opposition.
- The Londoners have kept five consecutive home clean sheets in the Champions League.
- The club’s run of matches without a draw in this tournament now stands at six games (4 wins, 2 defeats).
- Tottenham Hotspur have failed to win 13 of their last 16 European matches against Spanish sides (5 draws, 8 defeats).
Potential Tottenham Hotspur Lineup (3-4-3)
Guglielmo Vicario – Kevin Danso, Archie Gray, Micky van de Ven – Pedro Porro, Pape Sarr, Conor Gallagher, Xavi Simons – Mathys Tel, Dominic Solanke, Randal Kolo Muani.
Forward Richarlison is suspended. Midfielders Joao Palhinha, Wilson Odobert, Lucas Bergvall, Rodrigo Bentancur and James Maddison are all out injured, as are defenders Cristian Romero, Destiny Udogie and Ben Davies, along with forwards Mohamed Kudus and Dejan Kulusevski. The participation of midfielder Conor Gallagher is in doubt.
Atletico Madrid
Last week, the club secured a second consecutive big win in the Champions League. Atletico Madrid have now suffered just one defeat in their last eight European matches, and their current unbeaten run stands at three games (2 wins, 1 draw). Notably, in this Champions League season the Spanish side still have not managed to keep a clean sheet, but Atletico Madrid have scored in 10 of their last 11 matches over that spell. To progress to the quarter-finals, the team simply need to avoid a heavy defeat, and in their previous 19 Champions League games the Madrid club have had only one such collapse — interestingly, it happened in London, away to Arsenal (0:4).
- Atletico Madrid have won 10 of their last 14 two-legged ties against English clubs.
- Ten of the Spaniards’ previous 11 Champions League matches have gone over the total.
- The team have conceded in seven straight away matches in this European competition.
Potential Atletico Madrid Lineup (4-4-2)
Juan Musso – Marcos Llorente, Marc Pubill, David Hancko, Matteo Ruggeri – Johnny Cardoso, Koke, Giuliano Simeone, Ademola Lookman – Julian Alvarez, Alexander Sorloth.
Midfielders Pablo Barrios and Rodrigo Mendoza are unavailable due to injury. The participation of first-choice goalkeeper Jan Oblak is in doubt.
Referee
Daniel Siebert (Germany)
Matches – 10 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 51;
Average yellow cards per match – 5.1;
Red cards shown – 2;
Fouls per match on average – 23;
Penalties – 10%.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Atletico Madrid: Match Prediction
Tottenham Hotspur completely fell apart in Madrid, but now the club should produce a far more coherent performance. Home support traditionally helps them transform, and that is why the English side have now gone 24 home matches in European competition without defeat. As many as 20 of those 24 games ended in victories. In the Champions League, the team’s unbeaten home run stands at eight matches (6 wins, 2 draws). Tottenham Hotspur have maintained a perfect home record in this season’s Champions League, and the English side have won all four of their most recent matches there without conceding.
Atletico Madrid have built themselves a comfortable advantage and will now surely play to the scoreline. Even if the Spanish side start losing, they are unlikely to commit too many players forward until they have squandered the three-goal cushion. It is worth noting that away from home the team generally look more passive than they do on their own ground. Across their last six away Champions League matches, Atletico Madrid have picked up only one win — and improving that record in London will be difficult.
Prediction: Tottenham Hotspur, double chance
