The first leg of the Russian Cup 2025/26 RPL Path quarter-final between Spartak and Lokomotiv will take place on November 6 at the Lukoil Arena in Moscow. Spartak vs. Lokomotiv: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Spartak
The Moscow club clinched the top spot in Group C thanks to a victory over Makhachkala in the 6th round (3-1). Dejan Stanković's side amassed 13 points (4 wins and 1 draw in regular time) and edged out Dynamo only on additional criteria. Spartak also topped the group in goals scored (13) and conceded (5). However, the team has failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their last 8 matches in the national Cup. Notably, the team has reached the semifinals in the Russian Cup for four consecutive seasons.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Spartak's last 8 matches in the national Cup.
- The team has not lost in regular time in 8 of their last 10 matches in this tournament (7 wins, 1 draw).
- Spartak conceded in 7 of their last 9 home games in the Russian Cup.
Predicted lineup for Spartak (4-3-3)
Ilya Pomazun – Egor Guziev, Ilya Samoshnikov, Alexandru Dzhikiya, Alexander Dobroditskiy – Nail Umyarov, Christopher Martins, Igor Dmitriev – Anton Zabolotny, Nikita Massalyga, Marquinhos.
Lokomotiv
The "Railroaders" finished second in their group. The team secured 4 wins and suffered two defeats (one on penalties) from CSKA, the winners of Group D. However, Mikhail Galaktionov's side outscored CSKA with 10 goals. Lokomotiv kept a clean sheet in three group matches. Additionally, the club has advanced past the quarter-final stage in the last three editions of the tournament.
- No more than 3 goals were scored in 10 of Lokomotiv's last 11 matches in the national Cup.
- The team won 4 of their last 5 away matches in this tournament (1 loss).
- In 5 of their last 7 away games in the Russian Cup, Lokomotiv conceded exactly 1 goal.
Predicted lineup for Lokomotiv (4-5-1)
Ilya Lantratov – Cristian Ramirez, Egor Pogostnov, Evgeny Morozov, Maksim Nenakhov – Danil Prutsev, Zelimkhan Bakaev, Sergey Pinyaev, Artem Timofeev, Vladislav Sarveli – Nikolay Komlichenko.
Referee
Pavel Kukuyan (Russia)
Matches – 7 (Russian Cup, 2023/24 - 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 25;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.6;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 26;
Penalties – 14%.
Spartak vs. Lokomotiv: Match Prediction
Bookmakers favor Dejan Stanković's side. Yes, Spartak has the home advantage in head-to-head meetings, but the team's current form makes me question the odds.
The defeat in the last Premier League round away to Zenit was Lokomotiv's first in 17 previous official matches (9 wins, 7 draws). During this period, Mikhail Galaktionov's team also defeated Spartak (4-2). A likely squad rotation in the cup match should not hinder Lokomotiv, as they have lost only three times in their last 14 away games in this tournament, all with a minimal margin.
Spartak has secured 5 wins this season with at least a two-goal advantage. However, it is worth noting the level of opponents: only Rubin is in the top half of the league table, while the rest are battling for survival. It is unclear why Dejan Stanković's team should confidently defeat a Lokomotiv side with high ambitions.
My prediction: Lokomotiv with a handicap (+1)
