The first playoff match for a spot in the Russian Premier League between Sochi and Pari NN will take place on May 28 at the Fisht Stadium. Sochi vs. Pari NN: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Sochi
Robert Moreno's side finished fifth in the last season of the First League and earned the right to participate in the playoffs because Chornomorets, who finished third, failed the Russian Football Union licensing process. Notably, Sochi lost their last league match against Chornomorets on their field (1-2). This defeat marked their second consecutive loss in the First League. It's worth mentioning that the team has not scored more than once in their last three matches, yet they were the highest-scoring team in the concluded championship with 55 goals.
- The team has not lost in 13 of their last 15 home matches in the First League (11 wins, 2 draws).
- The club has conceded no more than one goal in 7 of their last 8 home league matches.
- Sochi has not scored in the first half in 4 of their last 5 home games in the First League.
Predicted lineup for Sochi (4-4-2)
Alexander Degtev – Ruslan Magal, Artem Makarchuk, Oleg Kozhemyakin, Pavel Maslov – Kirill Suslov, Maxim Kainov, Ruslan Shagiakhmetov, Lazar Stoisavljevic – Amur Balzikov, Kirill Nikitin.
Midfielder Kirill Kravtsov, along with forwards Pavel Meleshin and Nikita Burmistrov, will not play due to injuries.
Pari NN
Viktor Goncharenko's side finished the season in the Premier League in 13th place, leading to their inclusion in the playoffs. In their final league match, Pari NN lost 0-2 away to CSKA. This was their only defeat in the last three RPL matches (1 win, 1 draw). Additionally, the team failed to score for the first time in five previous Premier League encounters. Overall, the club's attack was not impressive in the past championship, scoring only 27 goals, ahead of only Fakel (14).
- The club has conceded at least two goals in 7 of their last 8 away RPL matches.
- The team has not scored in the second half in their last eight away league matches.
- Two or three goals have been scored in 5 of Pari NN's last 6 away Premier League games.
Predicted lineup for Pari NN (3-5-2)
Nikita Medvedev – Kirill Gotsuk, Viktor Alexandrov, Stanislav Magkeev – Nikita Kakkoev, Mamadou Maiga, Sven Karic, Alexander Troshechkin, Alexander Ektov – Vladislav Karapuzov, Vyacheslav Grulev.
Midfielder Konstantin Maradishvili and forward Alexander Koksharov will not play due to injuries.
Referee
Sergey Karasev (Russia)
Matches – 16 (RPL, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 63;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.9;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 31%.
Match Prediction: Sochi vs. Pari NN
Robert Moreno's team performed confidently at home in the last season of the First League, ranking second in points earned at home (36). Additionally, Sochi scored 36 goals in 17 home matches in the concluded championship, leading in this metric. In their last 12 home games in the First League, the team secured nine victories, four of which were by a large margin. Furthermore, in the last RPL season, Sochi convincingly defeated Pari NN in their home encounter – 6-1.
Viktor Goncharenko's team has struggled in recent away matches in the Premier League, suffering eight consecutive losses with a total goal difference of 2-20. In only two instances during this period did Pari NN manage to challenge their opponents, while in six other matches, they lost by at least a two-goal margin.
I don't think the team will show progress or achieve a positive result even against an opponent from a different division. Moreover, Pari NN might be relaxed by the news that Khimki did not receive a license for the next RPL season, which means Pari NN will retain their Premier League status regardless of the upcoming match's outcome. My prediction: Sochi to Win
* The starting lineup for each team is based on their last match.
