The second-leg playoff match for the right to play in Ligue 1 between Reims and Metz will take place on May 29 at the Auguste Delaune Stadium. Reims vs. Metz: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Reims
The first leg, held in Metz, ended in a 1-1 draw. Thus, the chances of both teams remain roughly equal, although the home-field advantage now lies with Reims. However, whether this is a decisive factor is questionable, as Reims had a poor home record in the concluded Ligue 1 season, earning fewer points at home than away (16 vs. 17). Reims failed to win in 13 of their 17 home league matches (4 draws, 9 losses), with only Havre and relegated Montpellier performing worse at home.
- The team has not won in their last 5 matches in Ligue 1 and playoffs (2 draws, 3 losses).
- No more than 2 goals have been scored in 7 of Reims' last 8 matches in these tournaments.
- At home, the club has scored no more than once in 7 of their last 8 Ligue 1 matches.
- Reims has not won in 11 of their last 13 home matches in the French top flight (3 draws, 8 losses).
Predicted lineup for Reims (4-3-3)
Yehvann Diouf – Sergio Akieme, Cedric Kipre, Joseph Okumu, Hiroki Sekine – John Patrick, Mori Gbane, Valentin Atangana Edoa – Anj Tia, Jordan Siebatcheu, Keito Nakamura.
Metz
The draw in the first leg extended the club's unbeaten run to four matches (2 wins, 2 draws). Metz has now scored in 12 consecutive games. It's worth noting that last season, the team lost away in the playoff matches against Saint-Etienne with a score of 1-2, despite winning the first home leg by the same scoreline, ultimately leading to their relegation to Ligue 2. Metz was the best away team in the second French division this season. Under Stephane Le Mignan, they avoided defeat in 13 of 17 away matches (8 wins, 5 draws), also becoming the highest-scoring away team with 27 goals.
- The club has not lost in 11 of their last 12 matches in Ligue 2 and playoffs (7 wins, 4 draws).
- Both teams scored in 11 of Metz's last 12 matches in these tournaments.
- At least 3 goals were scored in 7 of the team's last away games in Ligue 2.
- Metz scored at least twice in 6 of their last 7 away matches in the second-tier French championship.
Predicted lineup for Metz (4-4-2)
Pape Ndiaye – Matthieu Udol, Yury-Michel Mbula, Sadibou Sane, Koffi Kouao – Morgan Bokele, Benjamin Stambouli, Jessy Demenge, Kevin van den Kerkhof – Gauthier Hein, Cheikh Sabaly.
Except for goalkeeper Arnaud Bodart, who underwent surgery on his left knee, all players are ready for the upcoming match.
Referee
Eric Wattellier (France)
Matches – 18 (Ligue 1 and Ligue 2, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 60;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.3;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 71%.
Reims vs. Metz: Match Prediction
Samba Diavara's team managed to avoid defeat in the first leg away, equalizing in the second half. Overall, the result of that match was quite fair, with Metz having a slight territorial advantage, though not overwhelming. I don't think the pattern of the upcoming match will differ much from what we saw in the first game. Bookmakers favor the hosts, but I believe the match will be evenly contested, considering Reims' poor home performance and their overall disappointing end to the season.
Moreover, the hosts will face the best away team in Ligue 2. Metz performed excellently away in the concluded tournament. The club's scoring prowess in recent away Ligue 2 matches is particularly impressive, scoring in their last 8 games with a total of 19 goals. An important argument in favor of the visitors is that Reims played an additional match last Saturday in the Coupe de France final, where they suffered a heavy 0-3 defeat to PSG, expending a lot of physical and emotional energy. The team looked helpless in that match and didn't create a single scoring opportunity.
I believe the hosts, struggling at the end of the season, are unlikely to recover from recent setbacks and defeat the best away team in Ligue 2. Moreover, in 4 of their last 5 home encounters in Ligue 1, Reims has failed to beat their upcoming opponent (2 draws, 2 losses). My prediction for the match is "Metz win or draw".
