The Supercopa de España semifinal between Real Madrid and Mallorca will take place on January 9 at the King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Real Madrid vs. Mallorca: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Predicted lineups for Real Madrid vs. Mallorca
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois – Lucas Vázquez, Eduardo Camavinga, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Antonio Rüdiger – Federico Valverde, Dani Ceballos – Brahim Diaz, Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo Goes – Kylian Mbappé.
Mallorca (4-4-2): Dominik Greif – Pablo Maffeo, José Manuel Copete, Johan Mojica, Martin Valjent – Omar Mascarell, Sergi Darder, Manu Morlanes, Antonio Sánchez – Vedat Muriqi, Cyle Larin.
Real Madrid
The capital club is participating in the Supercopa as the winner of La Liga 2024/25. Madrid has won this tournament 13 times, with only Barcelona having more victories (14). Carlo Ancelotti's team faced the Catalans in the final of the Supercopa in the last two editions. A year ago, Real emerged victorious with a 4-1 win, while in the 2022/23 season, the trophy went to Barcelona, who defeated Madrid 3-1 in the final.
- Both teams scored in regular time in 5 of Real Madrid's last 7 Supercopa de España games.
- The club has not won in 90 minutes in 6 of their last 8 matches in this tournament (4 draws and 2 losses).
- At least one goal was scored in the first half in Madrid's last seven Supercopa matches.
Mallorca
The team is participating in this tournament for only the third time, this time as the Copa del Rey finalist. Last year, the islanders reached the final of the Copa del Rey, where they lost to Athletic Bilbao in a penalty shootout (1-1, extra time 0-0, penalties 2-4). Mallorca has one Supercopa trophy in their club museum, which they won in 1998. They also played in the final of this tournament in 2003.
- No more than three goals were scored in 18 of the club's last 20 La Liga matches.
- The number "1" appeared in the final score in 13 of Mallorca's last 16 league games.
- There was a draw in the first half in 9 of the islanders' last 10 La Liga matches.
Real Madrid vs. Mallorca: Match Prediction
Madrid, anticipating a final showdown with Barcelona, might approach the clash with the islanders with less intensity. This could be an opportunity for Jagoba Arrasate's side. Moreover, Mallorca has shown good form this season, currently sitting in a high 6th place in the La Liga standings. Beating this team is not easy. Notably, in the last 34 league matches, the club has suffered only two defeats with a margin of two or more goals.
Interestingly, Real has not been aiming for decisive wins over their opponents in this tournament. In the last 17 Supercopa de España matches, the club has only won by more than one goal in regular time on four occasions. Additionally, in the last four head-to-head meetings in La Liga, the islanders have never lost to Madrid by a margin of two or more goals – 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses with a score of 0-1. Therefore, I expect a tight match with minimal scoring, where Mallorca even has a chance not to lose in 90 minutes.
My prediction – Mallorca with a handicap (+1.5)
