The second-leg UEFA Champions League 2025/26 playoff tie between Real Madrid (Spain) and Benfica (Portugal) will take place on 25 February at the Santiago Bernabeu. The score in the first leg was 1:0 in favour of Real Madrid. Real Madrid vs Benfica: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Real Madrid
For several months now, Real Madrid have continued to alternate between wins and defeats. The home team lost to Benfica in the final round of the Champions League league phase (2:4), but took partial revenge in the first leg of the knockout tie. The Spaniards’ scoring run in this European campaign now stands at five matches. In addition, last week the club managed to keep a clean sheet, having previously conceded in five straight European fixtures. Now, to reach the last 16, the Madrid side will simply need to avoid defeat in normal time.
- Real Madrid have scored in 40 consecutive home matches in the Champions League.
- The club’s no-draw run in this competition has reached 25 games (16 wins, 9 defeats).
- Both teams have scored in 14 of the Spaniards’ last 15 home Champions League matches.
Potential Real Madrid Lineup (4-4-2)
Thibaut Courtois – Antonio Rudiger, Raul Asencio, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Alvaro Carreras – Arda Guler, Aurelien Tchouameni, Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde – Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappe.
Defender Raul Asencio’s suspension has come to an end, while forward Rodrygo continues to serve his ban. Midfielders Dani Ceballos and Jude Bellingham will miss the game through injury, as will defenders Dean Huijsen and Eder Militao.
Benfica
Like Real Madrid, the Portuguese side have avoided draws in the Champions League for quite some time. Benfica’s no-draw run in this competition now stands at 10 matches, with more than half of them ending in defeat – they have managed to win only four times. It is also worth noting that last Tuesday the away team failed to keep a clean sheet for the third consecutive European match. If they win by a one-goal margin, the Lisbon club will take the second leg into extra time, while to go through within 90 minutes Benfica need to win by a margin of at least two goals.
- At least one team have failed to score in seven of the Portuguese side’s last eight Champions League matches.
- The club have scored more than one goal in just one of their last five away matches in this tournament.
- Benfica have failed to win four of their last five away Champions League games (1 draw, 3 defeats).
Potential Benfica Lineup (4-5-1)
Anatoliy Trubin – Amar Dedic, Tomas Araujo, Nicolas Otamendi, Samuel Dahl – Rafa Silva, Heorhii Sudakov, Leandro Barreiro, Fredrik Aursnes, Andreas Schjelderup – Vangelis Pavlidis.
First-team midfielder Gianluca Prestianni is suspended. The participation of midfielder Fredrik Aursnes is in doubt.
Referee
Slavko Vincic (Slovenia)
Matches – 10 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 20;
Average yellow cards per match – 2;
Red cards shown – 1;
Fouls per match on average – 24;
Penalties – 40%.
Real Madrid vs Benfica: Match Prediction
Despite the thrilling head-to-head in the league phase, the teams approached the playoff match far more cautiously, which is why we saw just one goal last week. The decisive game may be more open, but it is unlikely we should expect a repeat of the January thriller. Although Real Madrid’s home matches in the Champions League are often high-scoring affairs, more than three goals have been scored in only one of their last six matches. If we also include away games, a three-goal line was the ceiling in nine of the club’s last 13 matches in this European competition.
As for Benfica, genuinely entertaining games are something of a rarity in general. Five of the Portuguese side’s last six Champions League matches have been low-scoring. More than three goals have been scored in only one of the club’s last eight games in this tournament. Meanwhile, Benfica’s most recent away European fixture in which the teams managed at least four goals took place back in March last year.
Prediction: Under 3.5 goals
