The first leg of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 between Real Madrid (Spain) and Atletico Madrid (Spain) will take place on March 4 at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Real Madrid
Carlo Ancelotti's side had no trouble overcoming Manchester City in the playoff matches, defeating the English club in both legs (3-2 and 3-1). This extended Madrid's winning streak in the Champions League to five matches. Notably, Real Madrid scored at least three goals in each of these games. This marks the club's 29th consecutive appearance in the Round of 16 of this tournament. Additionally, in the last four seasons, the club has won the Champions League twice and reached the semifinals twice.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Real Madrid's last 8 games in this European competition.
- At least four goals were scored in 6 of Real Madrid's last 8 Champions League matches.
- Two or more goals have been scored in the second half of the club's last six matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Real Madrid (4-3-3)
Thibaut Courtois – Ferland Mendy, Antonio Rüdiger, Raúl Asensio, David Alaba – Eduardo Camavinga, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Brahim Diaz – Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo Goes, Kylian Mbappé.
Defenders Jesús Vallejo, Éder Militão, and Dani Carvajal, as well as midfielder Dani Ceballos, are sidelined due to injuries. Midfielder Jude Bellingham will miss the match due to suspension. The participation of midfielder Federico Valverde is in doubt.
Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone's team finished fifth in the group stage of the Champions League, achieving 6 wins and 2 losses. By reaching the top eight, the club avoided the playoff matches and advanced directly to the Round of 16. Interestingly, Atletico has reached this stage of the tournament six times in the last seven seasons. It's worth noting that in the previous Champions League, the team was eliminated in the quarterfinals by Borussia Dortmund on aggregate.
- Both teams scored in regular time in 9 of Atletico's last 11 Champions League games.
- At least three goals were scored in 90 minutes in 11 of Atletico's last matches in this tournament.
- In 6 of the club's last 7 matches in this European competition, at least two goals were scored in the second half.
Predicted lineup for Atletico Madrid (4-4-2)
Jan Oblak – Nahuel Molina, Clément Lenglet, José María Giménez, Robin Le Normand – Marcos Llorente, Rodrigo De Paul, Giuliano Simeone, Samuel Lino – Antoine Griezmann, Julián Álvarez.
Defender César Azpilicueta and midfielder Koke will miss the game due to injuries.
Referee
Clément Turpin (France)
Matches – 11 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 31;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 55%.
Match Prediction: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone's side is considered the underdog in this matchup. However, I believe they have a good chance to either advance past their city rivals or at least not lose in the first leg. Like their opponents, Atletico has a five-match winning streak in the Champions League. These teams are also closely matched in the La Liga standings, with Atletico playing significantly better defensively, which I believe will allow the visitors to contain the hosts' attacking potential in the upcoming match.
Interestingly, Real has not defeated their city rivals in regular time in their last eight official meetings (seven of these encounters ended in a draw). Therefore, I suggest betting on the visitors with a handicap in the first game. Atletico has not lost to Real with a (+1) handicap in their last 10 meetings in La Liga, the Copa del Rey, and the Spanish Super Cup. Additionally, these Madrid teams have faced each other six times in the Champions League this century, and Real has only managed to defeat their city rivals by a margin of two or more goals once in 90 minutes.
My prediction: Atletico Madrid with a handicap (+1)
