The second leg of the 2025/26 Champions League third qualifying round between Qarabag (Azerbaijan) and Shkendija (North Macedonia) will take place on August 12 at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium in Baku. The first match ended 1-0 in favor of Qarabag. Qarabag vs. Shkendija: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Qarabag
The Azerbaijani team achieved a favorable result in the first leg, managing to defeat the Balkan side 1-0 away. This marked the third consecutive clean sheet victory for the Caucasian club in the Champions League. To progress to the playoff stage of this European competition, Gurban Gurbanov's men only need to avoid defeat at home. It is also worth noting that Qarabag has not reached the autumn round of the Champions League since 2017.
- The Azerbaijani side has an uncompromising record in regular time in this tournament with 9 matches (6 wins and 3 losses).
- At least one team failed to score in the last 5 Champions League matches involving Qarabag.
- The Caucasians have not lost in regular time in 11 of their last 13 home fixtures in this European competition (7 wins and 4 draws).
Predicted lineup for Qarabag (4-4-2)
Mateusz Kochalski – Behlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Toral Bayramov – Abdellah Zoubir, Kadi, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicalho – Nariman Ahundzade, Emmanuel Addai.
Shkendija
The appearance of representatives from the North Macedonian championship even at the stage of the third qualifying round is already a notable achievement. Shkendija itself has never progressed beyond the fourth qualifying stage of the main competition (in the Europa League). After a home defeat, the Balkans will need to defeat their opponent on their turf by at least two goals. If they manage a narrow victory, extra time will be played.
- The club has not won in regular time in 6 of their last 8 Champions League matches (2 draws and 4 losses).
- No more than two goals were scored in 90 minutes in 4 of Shkendija's last 5 games in this tournament.
- The team has not scored more than 1 goal in regular time in 6 of their last 7 away matches in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for Shkendija (4-2-3-1)
Baboucarr Gaye – Aleksandar Trumchi, Ronaldo Webster, Imiran Fetai, Klisman Tsake – Adamu Alhassan, Reshat Ramadani – Endrit Krasniqi, Fabrice Tamba, Liridon Latifi – Besart Ibraimi.
Referee
Danny Makkelie (Netherlands)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 26;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.7;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 29%.
Match Prediction: Qarabag vs. Shkendija
The Caucasians are simply expected to advance past this opponent. The level of Qarabag's players is noticeably higher than that of the Balkans, and the hosts have significant experience in European competitions, particularly in the main stages. Gurban Gurbanov's team can afford to play based on the result of the first match – taking fewer risks and catching the North Macedonians on counterattacks. The Azerbaijanis have mastered this art, having failed to score in only two of their last 14 Champions League matches.
In the first game of this encounter, both teams showed their attacking intent, as evidenced by the shot statistics – 19:17 in favor of Qarabag. It seems that in the upcoming match, the opponents will continue to threaten each other's goals, leading to high scoring. It is worth noting that when Shkendija faced serious opponents in Champions League qualifiers, they invariably lost heavily away.
I believe the hosts will score at least two goals in this match. My prediction: Qarabag individual total over 1.5 goals
