The first leg of the 2024/25 Champions League round of 16 between PSV (Netherlands) and Arsenal (England) will take place on March 4 at the Philips Stadium in Eindhoven. PSV vs. Arsenal: prediction, betting odds, and statistics.
PSV
Peter Bosz's team reaching this advanced stage of the Champions League comes as a surprise. The Dutch side exchanged home victories with Juventus in the playoffs, both ending 2-1. PSV advanced thanks to a goal scored in extra time in the second leg held in Eindhoven. This marks their second consecutive appearance in the round of 16 of this European competition and their third in the last nine years. Last season, PSV was halted at this stage, losing to Borussia Dortmund over two legs (1-1 and 0-2).
- The club has not lost in regular time in 7 of their last 9 Champions League games (5 wins and 2 draws).
- Both teams scored in 8 of PSV's last 10 matches in this tournament.
- The Dutch have scored in 11 consecutive home games in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for PSV (4-3-3)
Walter Benitez – Adamo Nagalo, Richard Ledesma, Ryan Flamingo, Mauro Junior – Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Ismael Saibari – Ivan Perisic, Luuk de Jong, Noa Lang.
Defender Sergiño Dest, midfielder Malik Tillman, and forward Ricardo Pepi will miss the game due to injuries.
Arsenal
The London club finished third in the group stage of the Champions League, securing six wins in eight matches (1 draw and 1 loss). Notably, the club conceded only three goals during the group stage (only Inter had a better defense, conceding just one goal). Last season, Mikel Arteta's team ended their campaign in this tournament at the quarter-final stage, losing to Bayern Munich over two legs (2-2 and 0-1).
- The Londoners have won 6 of their last 7 matches in the Champions League.
- At least one team failed to score in 7 of Arsenal's last 9 encounters in this tournament.
- The English side has not conceded in the second half in 7 of their last 8 games in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for Arsenal (4-3-3)
David Raya – Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel Magalhães, William Saliba, Jurriën Timber – Thomas Partey, Declan Rice, Martin Ødegaard – Mikel Merino, Ethan Nwaneri, Leandro Trossard.
Forwards Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, and Bukayo Saka, as well as defender Takehiro Tomiyasu, will miss the game due to injuries.
Referee
Jesús Gil Manzano (Spain)
Matches – 6 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 23;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 17%.
PSV vs. Arsenal: Match Prediction
I believe bookmakers are overestimating the Gunners' chances in the upcoming match. The Dutch side has not lost in regular time in the Champions League at home for 11 matches, securing 7 wins and 4 draws. It is also worth noting that the team defeated another English club, Liverpool, 3-2 at home during the group stage.
The upcoming opponents have met four times before in the Champions League and Europa League. In England, Arsenal secured clean-sheet victories, but in the Netherlands, the Gunners faced a tough reception – 1 draw and 1 loss. Additionally, Arsenal has only defeated Sporting and modest Girona in their last seven away matches in the Champions League, drawing twice and suffering three clean-sheet losses. The London club is also dealing with squad issues, with the loss of four attacking players already impacting their results.
All these factors lead me to predict "PSV win or draw".
