The Matchday 4 clash in the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Newcastle (England) and Athletic (Spain) will take place on November 5 at St James' Park. Newcastle vs. Athletic: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Newcastle
The English side has only faltered once in the current Champions League campaign. In the opening round, they hosted Barcelona and lost 1-2. However, in the following two matches, Eddie Howe's men confidently dealt with both opponents. First, they defeated Union away (4-0), and then thrashed Benfica at home (3-0). With 6 points, the team is in the top 8, but six other teams are right on their heels with the same points but a significantly worse goal difference.
- The club has not won in 5 of their last 7 matches in this tournament (1 draw and 4 losses).
- Exactly two or three goals have been scored in 5 of Newcastle's last 6 Champions League matches.
- The English side has not lost in the first half in five consecutive matches in this European competition (4 wins and 1 draw).
Predicted lineup for Newcastle (4-4-2)
Nick Pope – Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Dan Burn – Bruno Guimaraes, Lewis Miley, Joelinton – Jacob Murphy, Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade.
Due to injuries, defender Valentino Livramento, midfielder Lewis Hall, and forward Yoan Wissa will miss the game.
Athletic
The Basque side secured their first victory in the current group stage in the last round. They hosted a daring Qarabag and defeated them 3-1. Notably, the Caucasians scored an early goal in the 1st minute, but the Spaniards quickly recovered from the unexpected start. In the first two matches of the tournament, their opponents were much stronger, leading to defeats: at home against Arsenal (0-2) and away against Borussia Dortmund (1-4). The Basques are currently in 21st place in the standings.
- No more than three goals have been scored in 7 of Athletic's last 9 matches in this European competition.
- The Spaniards have not won in 4 of their last 5 away matches in the Champions League (1 draw and 3 losses).
- In their last five away matches in this tournament, the Basques have scored exactly 1 goal.
Predicted lineup for Athletic (4-2-3-1)
Unai Simon – Yuri Berchiche, Aymeric Laporte, Daniel Vivian, Andoni Gorosabel – Mikel Jauregi, Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta – Nico Williams, Oihan Sancet, Alex Berenguer – Gorka Guruzeta.
Unavailable due to injuries: defenders Lekue and Unai Etxebarria, midfielder Benat Prados, forwards Inaki Williams and Maroane Sanadi.
Referee
Ivan Kružliak (Slovakia)
Matches – 13 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 62;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 31%.
Newcastle vs. Athletic: Match Prediction
Both teams have minimal experience in the main stage of the Champions League. Nevertheless, both sides aim to finish among the top 24. To achieve this, they need to excel in attack, which the English side has been doing, scoring in all five previous matches in this European competition. Notably, only five clubs have scored more than Newcastle in the current group stage.
For the hosts, expect goals from Anthony Gordon, who became the first Newcastle player to score in three consecutive matches in the main Champions League draw. I also anticipate accurate shots from the visitors, who have failed to score only against Arsenal in their last five matches in this European competition. Additionally, both opponents have shown a noticeable decline in defense in their national tournaments: Newcastle conceded in their last three Premier League matches against mid-table and lower-ranked teams, while Athletic allowed goals in 8 of their last 9 La Liga games.
My prediction: Both teams to score – yes
