The second leg of the EFL Cup semi-final between Manchester City vs Newcastle United will take place on 4 February at the Etihad Stadium. The score from the first match was 2:0 in favor of Manchester City. Manchester City vs Newcastle United: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Manchester City
Manchester City unexpectedly won the first meeting comfortably, defeating Newcastle United at their stadium 2:0. Note that both goals were scored after the break. The club's winning run in this competition now stands at four matches. Also in these ties the visitors conceded only one goal. If the visitors do not lose by more than one goal, they will reach the EFL Cup final for the first time since the 2020/21 season.
- The club has not drawn in regulation time in the last 10 consecutive matches in this competition (7 wins and 3 losses).
- Exactly two or three goals were scored in 5 of the last 6 Manchester City matches in the EFL Cup.
- The home side's winning run at home in this cup stands at six matches.
Potential Manchester City Lineup (4-5-1)*
James Trafford – Abduqodir Husanov, Max Ellini, Mateus Nunes, Nathan Ake – Bernardo Silva, Jeremy Doku, Nico O'Riley, Phil Foden, Antoine Semenyo – Erling Haaland.
Defenders John Stones, Rúben Dias and Josko Gvardiol, forward Jeremy Doku, and midfielders Savinho and Mateo Kovačić are unavailable due to injuries. Defender Marc Guehi is ineligible for this match, having already represented another club in this competition. Note the transfers of midfielder Oscar Bobb to Fulham and goalkeeper Stefan Ortega to Nottingham Forest.
Newcastle United
The club is the current EFL Cup holder, having beaten Liverpool in last season's final. In the 2022/23 season it also reached the final but then failed to overcome Manchester United. Reaching a third final in the last four editions will be incredibly difficult, as they need a large away victory. At the same time, a two-goal win would force extra time. It is also worth noting that the first-leg defeat ended Newcastle United's long nine-match winning streak in this cup.
- In the previous 14 matches in this competition the club suffered only 1 defeat (11 wins and 2 draws).
- Newcastle United scored at least two goals in 8 of their last 9 EFL Cup games.
- Exactly two or three goals were scored in 6 of the last 7 matches the team played in this competition.
Potential Newcastle United Lineup (4-3-3)*
Nick Pope – Sven Botman, Lewis Miley, Lewis Hall, Malik Tiaw – Bruno Guimarães, Joelinton, Jacob Ramsey – Yoan Wissa, Anthony Gordon, Jacob Murphy.
Defenders Fabian Schär, Valentino Livramento and Emil Kraft, as well as midfielder Joelinton, will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
Tony Harrington (England)
Matches – 13 (the Premier League, 2025/26);
Yellow Cards Shown (including second yellows) – 41;
Average Yellow Cards Per Match – 3.2;
Red Cards Shown – 1;
Fouls Per Match On Average – 20;
Penalties – 8%.
Manchester City vs Newcastle United: Match Prediction
Since the 2017/18 season Manchester City have won the EFL Cup four times in a row. Judging by the team's current form, Josep Guardiola appears to be preparing his players for another triumph in this competition. Considering the first-leg win, Manchester City will most likely reach the final again. To avoid a mistake in the second match, the club will certainly not treat the result at St James' Park lightly. We believe the home side will be stronger in the return match.
Moreover, the game takes place at the Etihad, where the hosts have six consecutive wins in the EFL Cup. Since September last year Manchester City have played 17 competitive matches at their stadium, winning 14 of them. It is also notable how they perform against this opponent at home: in the last 11 head-to-head meetings in the Premier League and the FA Cup, Manchester City did not concede a single point to Newcastle United at home, winning all of those matches. Interestingly, the last 7 head-to-heads at this stadium ended in clean-sheet wins for the hosts.
Prediction: Manchester City to win
* For each team the starting lineup is the one from its last match in this competition.
