The second leg of the 2025/26 Europa Conference League qualification playoff between Mainz (Germany) and Rosenborg (Norway) will take place on August 28 at the Mewa Arena. The first match ended 2-1 in favor of Rosenborg. Mainz vs. Rosenborg: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Mainz
In their debut match in the Conference League, Bo Henriksen's side suffered a 1-2 defeat. This marks only the third loss for Mainz in their last 11 European matches (3 wins, 5 draws). However, the team managed to keep a clean sheet in only 3 of those games. To advance to the group stage of the Conference League, the Germans need to win the return leg by at least two goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Mainz's last 8 international matches.
- The club has scored more than once in just 2 of their last 13 European games.
- The Germans are unbeaten in their last 5 home matches in the Europa League (2 wins, 3 draws).
Predicted lineup for Mainz (4-5-1)
Robin Zentner – Anthony Caci, Philipp Mwene, Danny da Costa, Stefan Bell – Kaishu Sano, Paul Nebel, Lee Jae-sung, Dominik Kohr, Nadiem Amiri – Benedikt Hollerbach.
Rosenborg
The victory in the last match was the fourth in five recent Conference League games for the Norwegians (1 draw), although it was the first time they conceded during this stretch. To reach the main round of the tournament, Alfred Johansson's side only needs to avoid defeat in the return leg. Throughout their history in the Conference League, Rosenborg has suffered just three defeats (9 wins, 3 draws), all by at least two goals. If the club loses by exactly one goal, extra time will follow.
- The team scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 8 of their last 10 Conference League matches.
- The Norwegians are unbeaten in 5 of their last 7 away matches in this tournament (4 wins, 1 draw).
- In 7 of their last 8 Conference League games, Rosenborg conceded no more than one goal.
Predicted lineup for Rosenborg (4-3-3)
Sander Tangvik – Mikkel Konradsen Ceïde, Adrian Pereira, Aslak Fonn Witry, Tomas Nemec – Ole Kristian Selnes, Santeri Väänänen, Simen Nordli – Emil Konradsen Seide, Dino Islamovic, Jesper Reitan.
Referee
Sander van der Eijk (Netherlands)
Matches – 5 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 7;
Average yellow cards per match – 1.4;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 26;
Penalties – 40%.
Match Prediction: Mainz vs. Rosenborg
Bookmakers underestimated the Norwegians in the first match. Although Alfred Johansson's side clinched victory shortly before the final whistle, they generally had the upper hand and could have scored more. Rosenborg's task now is to prevent the opponent from scoring. Before facing Mainz, the Scandinavians had a four-match clean sheet streak in the Conference League, and away in this tournament, the club has not conceded more than two goals in 6 of their last 7 games.
The Germans need to score and win. Both aspects pose challenges for the team. Mainz has won only 3 of their last 11 European matches (5 draws, 3 losses), and in 10 of those games, the club did not score more than twice. At the start of this season, Bo Henriksen's side appears modest: a 1-0 victory over a Second Bundesliga representative in the national cup and a defeat in the league against Cologne (0-1). Moreover, in this match, the club lost forward Benedikt Hollerbach to injury, who was expected to be Mainz's main attacking force.
My prediction: Mainz individual total under 2
