The first Europa League 2025/26 play-off tie between Lille and Crvena Zvezda will take place on 19 February at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve-d'Ascq. Lille vs Crvena Zvezda: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Lille
Lille only booked their place in the play-offs in the final round of the league phase. Playing at home against Freiburg, the home team won 1:0. Interestingly, the club have had no draws in this season's Europa League - four wins and four defeats. It is also worth noting that the last time Lille featured in this competition was in 2020/21, when they also reached the play-off ties but lost both matches to Ajax (1:2 twice).
- At least one of the opponents failed to score in four of the club's previous five Europa League matches.
- Lille have not lost in 12 of their last 15 home matches in this tournament (six wins and six draws).
- Both teams to score landed in seven of the French side's previous nine home games in this European competition.
Potential Lille Lineup (4-4-2)*
Berke Ozer - Aissa Mandi, Calvin Verdonk, Tiago Santos, Nathan Ngoy - Ayyoub Bouaddi, Ngal'ayel Mukau, Benjamin Andre, Felix Correia - Matias Fernandez-Pardo, Hakon Arnar Haraldsson.
Due to injuries, forward Hamza Igamane (out for the rest of the season), midfielders Ethan Mbappe and Nabil Bentaleb, defenders Thomas Meunier and Ousmane Toure, as well as goalkeeper Marc-Aurel Caillard, are unavailable.
Crvena Zvezda
Crvena Zvezda made a poor start to the league phase, collecting just one point from their first three rounds. However, in the next four matches of the tournament, the visitors won each game by the same 1:0 scoreline, which allowed the club to secure a place in the play-off ties early. In the final round, the Balkan side also drew 1:1 at home with Celta, but that stalemate no longer affected anything. It is also worth noting that Crvena Zvezda have reached this stage of the Europa League twice before, but have never progressed any further (CSKA knocked them out in 2017/18, while Milan did so in 2020/21). The Serbian club's league-phase fixtures were also among the lowest-scoring - an average of 1.6 goals were scored per match.
- No more than two goals were scored in six previous matches involving the Serbian side in this tournament.
- At least one of the opponents failed to score in five of Crvena Zvezda's last six Europa League games.
- The visitors have lost six of their previous eight away matches in this European competition.
Potential Crvena Zvezda Lineup (4-5-1)*
Mateus - Seol Young-woo, Milos Veljkovic, Nair Tiknizyan, Rodrigan - Rade Krunic, Nikola Stankovic, Vasilije Kostov, Aleksandar Katai, Timi Elsnik - Marko Arnautovic.
Referee
Sven Jablonski (Germany)
Matches - 11 (international fixtures, 2024/25-2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) - 38;
Average yellow cards per match - 3.5;
Red cards shown - 2;
Average fouls per match - 18;
Penalties - 0%.
Lille vs Crvena Zvezda: Match Prediction
Both opponents can be considered evenly matched in terms of quality, despite the higher ranking of Ligue 1. Both clubs primarily look to deliver their best performances at home. For Lille, it is important to feel more confident ahead of the return leg, so the hosts will play solely for victory. All the more so because the home side remember perfectly well how tough it will be in the Balkans - in November, Crvena Zvezda beat this opponent 1:0. However, the Serbian side will not simply hand over the first leg either, and will try at least to score against the French club.
Crvena Zvezda have weak numbers away from home. However, the away team have scored in 11 of their previous 13 away matches in the Europa League. At the same time, the visitors have conceded in eight of their last 10 away games in this tournament. Meanwhile, Lille have not gone without a goal on their own ground in their previous nine Europa League matches. However, the hosts have also conceded in eight of their last 10 home games in this European competition.
Prediction: Both teams to score - Yes
* For each team, the starting line-up from their previous match is listed.
