In 2023 a long run of poor results began for Juventus in meetings with Bologna (five draws in a row). The picture only changed with the arrival of Spalletti, who in the first half of the season put the mid-table side in their place (1:0). Now everything points to a repeat of that result.
Confident Bet On the Match
Juventus are well aware of their superiority in physical condition, and will also be playing in front of their own fans, so from the first minutes the home side will take control of the ball (57% possession on average). From there everything will follow the classic Spalletti scenario. While Locatelli (74 passes per match) overloads the left flank, drawing all the attention to Kenan Yildiz, on the right there will be an unmarked Conceicao, who will only need a switch of play. Let us recall that the Portuguese is the third-best dribbler in the league (2.4 successful dribbles). While he is dealing with defenders on the flank, Kalulu will join in, whose crosses have become a serious weapon (nine chances created). Yes, on paper Juventus do not have an out-and-out centre forward, but this does not bother the team at all. This season 18 players have already scored for them — only Napoli have more (19).
What will be left for Bologna? To hope for their favoured long balls from Moro (7.7 per game — first place in Serie A). But we should not forget that the Turin club are second in the league for ball recoveries in the final third (4.7), so no one will even allow the Croatian to lift his head. And he is the only real chance to get the ball to Castro. Overall, everything points to Juventus dismantling their opponents and keeping hold of fourth place.
Prediction: Juventus (-1.5)
Additional Bet On the Match
We will continue the idea of constant pressure from the hosts. Numerous balls into the box and attempts to beat players from Yildiz and Conceicao will inevitably lead to corners. At the same time, in the case of rare counter-attacks from the visitors, Bremer and company will not hesitate to put the ball behind for a corner, because it is almost impossible to score against Juventus from such situations. On average, matches involving them produce 9.5 corners, and Bologna have the same figure. Therefore the bet on Over 8.5 corners at odds of 1.63 looks particularly attractive on the coupon.
Prediction: Over 8.5 corners
Form and Squad of Juventus
Juventus have beaten Genoa (2:0) and Atalanta (1:0) after the international break, and showed that the team are capable of dealing with opponents both by dominating possession and on the counter-attack. The key to success unexpectedly turned out to be Di Gregorio, who seemed to have completely lost his form. Coming off the bench against Genoa, he saved a penalty, and then neutralised all 22 shots on goal from Atalanta.
Key Juventus numbers:
Juventus are second in Serie A for expected goals (58.3).
On average the Turin side register six shots on target per match (second place).
Juventus are third in the league for xG conceded (29.3).
The Old Lady concede fewer goals from set pieces than anyone else (four goals).
Potential Juventus lineup (4-5-1): Di Gregorio — Kalulu, Bremer, Kelly, Cambiaso — Locatelli, Thuram, Conceicao, McKennie, Yildiz — Boga.
Out: Perin, Vlahovic, Milik, Cabal (all injured).
Form and Squad of Bologna
Bologna, by contrast, have looked very poor after the international break. The visitors scraped past relegation candidates Cremonese (2:1) and Lecce (2:0), while being heavily beaten twice by Aston Villa in the Europa League (1:3 and 0:4). As it turned out, the team's defence looks more like a sieve, and in attack they badly lack creativity when facing opponents of similar strength. Worst of all, the latest defeat came on Thursday, so now the away side will be far from their best physical condition.
Key Bologna numbers:
Bologna lead Serie A for the number of accurate long passes (32.3).
Bologna are only 10th for xG created (39.4).
Italiano's team make poor use of set pieces: seven goals and 14th place in the league.
Potential Bologna lineup (4-5-1): Ravaglia — Joao Mario, Casale, Lucumi, Miranda — Moro, Freuler, Orsolini, Ferguson, Cambiaghi — Castro.
Out: Bonifazi, Dallinga, Dominguez, Skorupski (all injured), Casale (doubtful).
