Matchday 5 of the 2024/25 Champions League group stage between Inter (Italy) and Leipzig (Germany) will take place on November 26 at the San Siro Stadium in Milan. Inter vs. Leipzig: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: João Pinheiro (Portugal)
Matches – 12 (International matches, 2023/24–2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 50;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.2;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 33%.
Predicted lineups for Inter vs. Leipzig
Inter (3-5-2): Yann Sommer – Benjamin Pavard, Stefan de Vrij, Alessandro Bastoni – Matteo Darmian, Nicolò Barella, Davide Frattesi, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Federico Dimarco – Lautaro Martínez, Marcus Thuram.
Leipzig (3-4-2-1): Péter Gulácsi – El Chadaille Bitshiabu, Willi Orbán, Lukas Klostermann – Antonio Nusa, Kevin Kampl, Arthur Vermeeren, Benjamin Henrichs – Christoph Baumgartner, Yussuf Poulsen – Lois Openda.
Inter
After four rounds of the Champions League group stage, only six clubs remain unbeaten, including the Milan side, who have collected 10 points. Inter drew 0-0 away with Manchester City in the first round and then secured three clean-sheet victories: at home against Crvena Zvezda (4-0) and Arsenal (1-0), and away against Young Boys (1-0). Notably, Simone Inzaghi's team, along with Atalanta, are the only ones yet to concede a goal in the main stage of the Champions League.
- At least one team failed to score in regular time in 6 of Inter's last 7 Champions League matches.
- Inter has suffered just one defeat in 90 minutes in their last 12 matches in this tournament (7 wins and 4 draws).
- The Italians have not conceded in the first half of their last seven home matches in the Champions League.
Leipzig
The German club unexpectedly finds itself among the bottom five teams in the tournament, having failed to earn a point after four rounds. In the first three matches, Leipzig faced tough opponents, losing to Atletico (1-2), Juventus (2-3), and Liverpool (0-1). In the last round, the team, playing away, lost to a more modest Celtic 1-3. Leipzig's winless streak in the Champions League now extends to six matches (1 draw and 5 losses).
- Both teams scored in 10 of Leipzig's last 12 matches in this tournament.
- The club opened the scoring in 7 of their last 10 Champions League encounters.
- The team has not won in the second half of their last five away matches (2 draws and 3 losses).
Inter vs. Leipzig: Match Prediction
Marco Rose's team has clearly been unlucky with the Champions League schedule. They primarily face top opponents, with upcoming matches against Aston Villa and Sporting still to come. I believe it is unlikely that the Germans will advance to the next stage of the tournament, as they even struggled against Celtic. Nevertheless, there's no doubt that the visitors will try to score against one of the tournament's best defenses. Leipzig has scored in 10 of their last 12 Champions League matches.
The Milan side is adept at counter-attacking their opponents. Inter is in a position where they can afford to play defensively, unlike the Germans, who have no choice but to take risks and attack more, leaving their defense exposed. On their home turf, the Italians have not lost in 11 consecutive Champions League matches (9 wins and 2 draws). It is unlikely that this streak will end.
Therefore, I believe the optimal prediction is 1X and Both Teams to Score – Yes
