The Matchday 25 Bundesliga fixture between Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen will take place on 7 March at the Europa-Park Stadion. Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Freiburg
The defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt last time out (0:2) was already the team’s third in their last five matches (two wins). Freiburg are also one of the few sides in the league who are still competing in European competition, the German Cup and the domestic league. Such a congested schedule is, naturally, affecting the team’s performances: defeats are alternating with wins, while their goalscoring record leaves a lot to be desired – just three goals in the last five matches, all of which were scored exclusively at home. Given the current standings, the club is unlikely to be able to challenge even for a place in the top six, with the gap already 10 points.
- In 11 home matches in the 2025/26 season, the team have recorded seven wins (three draws, one defeat).
- No more than three goals have been scored in six of the club’s last league matches.
- Freiburg have traded goals with their opponents in 14 of their last 16 home Bundesliga games.
Potential Freiburg Lineup (4-5-1)*
Noah Atubolu – Bruno Ogbus, Philipp Treu, Matthias Ginter, Christian Gunter – Siryak Irie, Maximilian Eggestein, Derry Scherhant, Patrick Osterhage, Yuito Suzuki – Lucas Holer.
Defenders Maximilian Rosenfelder and Philipp Lienhart, as well as midfielder Daniel-Kofi Kyere, will miss out through injury.
Bayer Leverkusen
The win over Hamburg last time out (1:0) enabled the team to extend their lead over their closest chaser and focus on pushing above sixth place, which Bayer Leverkusen occupy after 24 matchdays. The club’s main strength remains its defence: under Kasper Hjulmand, the team have conceded only 29 goals, an average of 1.27 per match, which is one of the best records in the league after the Munich and Dortmund clubs. In attack, however, things have been less convincing – among the top seven sides, the Leverkusen outfit have scored the fewest, with just 45 goals.
- In 12 away matches in the 2025/26 Bundesliga season, Bayer Leverkusen have recorded six wins (two draws, four defeats).
- No more than three goals have been scored in six of the team’s previous eight league games.
- The club have scored at least one goal in six of their last seven matches in this competition.
Potential Bayer Leverkusen Lineup (3-4-3)*
Janis Blaswich – Jarell Quansah, Robert Andrich, Edmond Tapsoba – Ignacio Fernandez, Jonas Hofmann, Arthur, Alejandro Grimaldo – Exequiel Palacios, Patrik Schick, Ernest Poku.
Goalkeeper Mark Flekken and forward Nathan Tella are injured.
Referee
Benjamin Brand (Germany)
Matches – 11 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second bookings) – 40;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.6;
Red cards shown – 0;
Fouls per match on average – 21;
Penalties – 18%.
Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen: Match Prediction
Bayer Leverkusen are in a difficult situation right now, especially when looking at their next four matches. After the meeting with Freiburg, they have a Champions League match against Arsenal, then a game against Bayern Munich, and then the return leg against the London side. The hosts’ schedule is not straightforward either: after the match against Bayer Leverkusen, they face a Europa League fixture and then a meeting with Union Berlin. With such a heavy workload, it is unlikely either opponent will take risks and play attacking football, and there is less and less energy left for that.
It is also worth adding that in seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings at Freiburg’s ground, no more than three goals have been scored. We do not expect a high-scoring contest in this one either. What is more, in Bayer Leverkusen’s last five away league matches, there has been more than two goals only once, while in Freiburg’s last five home Bundesliga games this mark did not exceed three goals.
Prediction: Under 3 goals
* For each team, the starting line-up from their previous match in this competition is listed.
