Pari Nizhny Novgorod Form and Lineup
After two bright performances against teams from the top half of the table, Baltika Kaliningrad (2:2) and Dynamo Moscow (1:1), Shpilevskiy's team again failed to cope with the pressure away from home. At the Gazovik Stadium against Orenburg (1:2), Pari Nizhny Novgorod even produced the higher xG (0.97 compared to 0.88) but collapsed at the end, when an opposition player coming off the bench scored twice in three minutes. As a result, the Nizhny Novgorod side remain in the direct relegation zone, handing vital three points to a direct rival. Things are not going well at home either: since the international break the team have taken just one point from a possible six here, putting in a poor display against a deep-lying Rostov (0:1).
Important Pari Nizhny Novgorod Numbers:
The Nizhny Novgorod club have the third-worst attack in the Premier Liga (22 goals). At the same time, they are five goals behind their xG (27.01 xG), which is an extremely high underperformance for a relegation candidate.
At home Pari Nizhny Novgorod have won only four times all season; only Rostov (3), Sochi (2) and Akron Togliatti (1) have fewer home wins.
In the last eight head-to-head meetings with Spartak Moscow, Pari Nizhny Novgorod have scored only one goal.
Potential Pari Nizhny Novgorod Lineup (4-3-3)
Nikita Medvedev — Yuriy Koledin, Ilya Kirsh, Viktor Alexandrov, Maksim Shnapcev — Egor Smelov, Andrey Ivlev, Luka Ticic — Matvey Urvantsev, Adrian Balboa, Renaldo Sefas.
Unavailable: Juan Castillo, Aleksandr Ektov (both injured).
Spartak Moscow Form and Lineup
On Thursday the bright unbeaten run of the Moscow club in six matches in the Russian Cup and league came to an end. At home against Krasnodar (1:2), Spartak Moscow certainly did enough to take points: they attacked better in the first half and took the lead, but a converted penalty by Spertsyan disrupted the plans of Carcedo's players. The red-and-whites continued to pile pressure on the opposition box (18:9 on shots), yet the most dangerous moment of the second half belonged to Krasnodar, when Jubal put them in front. Despite the goal that came after a decent move, the Spartak Moscow coaching staff are unlikely to restore Martins to the starting XI, because the partnership of Umyarov and Litvinov in the holding role looks disciplined. There are more and more questions about Ugalde's performances: the Costa Rican was substituted as early as the 65th minute, and the last game was his ninth in a row without a goal contribution, with no Premier Liga goals since October.
Important Spartak Moscow Numbers:
In their last three away matches, the Moscow side have conceded only one goal.
Spartak Moscow have the sixth-best away xGA figure in the Premier Liga (16.45).
In their last five away fixtures, Spartak Moscow have gone Under 2.5 goals in four matches.
Potential Spartak Moscow Lineup (4-2-3-1)
Aleksandr Maksimenko — Roman Zobnin, Aleksandr Djiku, Christopher Wu, Daniil Denisov — Ruslan Litvinov, Nail Umyarov — Marquinhos, Ezequiel Barco, Gedson Fernandes — Manfred Ugalde.
Unavailable: Srdjan Babic (injured).
Defeat against Krasnodar, in which the Moscow club missed a clear opportunity to pick up points, has left them four points adrift of the top three. If Spartak Moscow fail to win in Nizhny Novgorod, CSKA Moscow, who are having a poor spring, could once again move above them, and in that scenario a wave of criticism will descend on Carcedo. However, the red-and-whites are under less pressure in terms of their position in the standings than Pari Nizhny Novgorod. Shpilevskiy's team will play even more vertically, as their system with a three-man midfield is built to look for the forwards with direct passes. Newcomer Balboa, who has scored twice in the Premier Liga, has looked very good, but his aerial ability will not be such a big factor against Spartak Moscow's centre-back duo Wu and Djiku. Pari Nizhny Novgorod will certainly have to open up, as the underdogs have no other choice. Against a tired home defence, Marquinhos and Barco will get their chances, and the hosts simply cannot allow them space.
Confident Bet
Spartak Moscow's dominance in head-to-head meetings with Pari Nizhny Novgorod naturally suggests backing an away win. Since August the red-and-whites have beaten the Nizhny Novgorod side three times (4:0, 3:0 and 2:1), doing so even when Stankovic's football was still inconsistent. With Carcedo it should be even easier to take points off a relegation candidate. We are backing a Spartak Moscow victory.
Prediction: Spartak Moscow to win
Alternative bet for the match
In 13 home games for Pari Nizhny Novgorod, Under 2.5 goals has landed seven times. Over 90 minutes in Nizhny Novgorod, an average of 2.2 goals are scored. If there is an early goal, Spartak Moscow may look to hold on to their lead so as not to get burned as they did in the recent game against Krasnodar. The low total looks an interesting option in the betting line.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
