The first leg of the EFL Cup semi-final between Chelsea and Arsenal will take place on 14 January at Stamford Bridge in London. Chelsea vs Arsenal: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Chelsea
Chelsea were fortunate with the draw, as in the three previous rounds they faced only one Premier League opponent, the clear outsider Wolverhampton, who were beaten 4:3. In the previous round the home side played away at Cardiff and with a second-string side managed to overcome the Welsh 3:1. Last season the club failed, losing at an early stage to eventual tournament winner Newcastle. In 2024 and 2022 the club reached the final but lost to Liverpool on both occasions (in extra time and on penalties).
- In the previous 7 matches in this competition the club suffered only 1 defeat (5 wins and 1 draw).
- At home Chelsea have not lost in the EFL Cup for 10 matches (7 wins and 3 draws).
- No more than two goals were scored in 7 of the last 10 home games for the Londoners in this competition.
Potential Chelsea Lineup (4-2-3-1)*
Filip Jorgensen – Benoit Badiashile, Josh Achiampong, Jorrell Hato, Tosin Adarabioyo – Andrey Santos, Moises Caicedo – Jamie Gittens, Facundo Buonanotte, Tyrique George – Marc Guiu.
Liam Rosenior has become the new head coach, having previously worked at Strasbourg. Defender Levi Colwill and midfielders Romeo Lavia and others will miss the match due to injuries.
Arsenal
Arsenal struggled to progress in the previous round, getting past Crystal Palace only on penalties after a 1:1 draw, pens 8:7. The goal conceded was the first in the current campaign for the visitors, as in earlier rounds they comfortably defeated their opponents by identical 2:0 scorelines. Interestingly, in the 21st century the club has never won the EFL Cup and has reached the final only twice in the last 15 years. Last season Arsenal were stopped by Newcastle at the semi-final stage, losing twice 0:2.
- Exactly two goals were scored in regular time in the visitors' last five matches in this competition.
- In the previous 12 away games in the EFL Cup Arsenal suffered only 2 defeats (6 wins and 4 draws).
- At least one team failed to score in 8 of the last 9 away matches for the Gunners in this competition.
Potential Arsenal Lineup (4-3-3)*
Kepa Arrizabalaga – Myles Lewis-Skelly, Ricardo Calafiori, Jurrien Timber, William Saliba – Mikel Merino, Eberechi Eze, Christian Nergor – Gabriel Martinelli, Gabriel Jesus, Noni Madueke.
Defenders Cristian Mosquera and Ricardo Calafiori will miss the match due to injuries. Defender Piero Incapie is also likely to be absent because of an injury.
Referee
Simon Hooper (England)
Matches – 9 (FA Cup and EFL Cup, 2023/24–2025/26);
Yellow Cards (including second yellows) – 20;
Average Yellow Cards Per Match – 2.2;
Red Cards – 0;
Average Fouls Per Match – 21;
Penalties – 0%.
Chelsea vs Arsenal: Match Prediction
This will be Liam Rosenior's first official match as head coach. Considering that Chelsea have two full squads, the players will try to show their abilities to the new manager as best they can. We expect the hosts to avoid defeat in the first leg of the semi-final, especially since they have not lost at their arena in this competition since October 2019. Meanwhile, Arsenal tend to alternate wins with defeats or draws on the road in the EFL Cup.
The Gunners treat this cup with indifference, and it is not surprising that they have not won it in the last 32 years. Arsenal are more focused on success in the Premier League and in the Champions League, so it would not be a tragedy for them to be eliminated from this competition again. In addition, Chelsea have not lost to their rivals at home in 13 of the previous 16 official meetings. Also, the last three meetings between the London clubs at St James' Park in the Premier League ended in draws.
Prediction: Chelsea To Win Or Draw
* For each team the starting lineup from their last match in this tournament is indicated.
