The first Champions League 2025/26 play-off match between Borussia Dortmund (Germany) and Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a. (Italy) will take place on 17 February at the Signal Iduna Park. Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a.: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Borussia Dortmund
Niko Kovac's side finished 17th in the league phase. The team avoided defeat in five of eight matches (three wins, two draws), but the group stage ended with a three-game winless run that included two goalless defeats. Even so, with 19 goals scored, Borussia Dortmund ranked among the top seven for goals. At the same time, the home side conceded 17, and among all the clubs that progressed, only Qarabag had a worse record (21). The Germans have reached the knockouts for the 11th time in the last 14 seasons, but it is worth adding that Borussia Dortmund have failed to get past Italian opposition in their previous three Champions League ties.
- The team have conceded at least two goals in five of their last six Champions League matches.
- On home soil in this tournament, Borussia Dortmund have avoided defeat in seven of their previous eight games (four wins, three draws).
- There were goals in both halves in six of the hosts' previous eight home Champions League matches.
Potential Borussia Dortmund Lineup (3-5-2)
Gregor Kobel – Ramy Bensebaini, Waldemar Anton, Yan Couto – Job Bellingham, Felix Nmecha, Julian Brandt, Julian Ryerson, Daniel Svensson – Serhou Guirassy, Maximilian Beier.
Defenders Nico Schlotterbeck, Niklas Sule, Filippo Mane, and midfielder Emre Can are injured.
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a.
The Bergamo club finished two points above the Germans in the standings. After suffering a heavy defeat on Matchday 1, the club produced a strong run (four wins, one draw) and began to challenge for a top-eight spot, but two defeats sent Raffaele Palladino's side into the play-offs. Notably, among all participants in the group stage, only Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a. had an equal number of goals scored and conceded – 10:10. The Italians have reached the knockouts for the fourth time in the last seven seasons, but in last season's tournament they failed to get through this stage.
- At least three goals were scored in 11 of the Bergamo club's previous 14 Champions League matches.
- Away from home in this tournament, the team have avoided defeat in seven of their last 10 games (five wins, two draws).
- The club scored more than once in only one of their last five away Champions League matches.
Potential Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a. Lineup (3-4-3)
Marco Carnesecchi – Giorgio Scalvini, Onest Ahanor, Berat Djimsiti – Nicola Zalewski, Ederson, Mario Pasalic, Davide Zappacosta – Marten de Roon, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Nikola Krstovic.
Midfielder Charles De Ketelaere and forward Giacomo Raspadori are injured.
Referee
Serdar Gozubuyuk (Netherlands)
Matches – 9 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 44;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.9;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 29;
Penalties – 44%.
Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a.: Match Prediction
Borussia Dortmund have produced excellent results at home in the Champions League. The defeat in the final round against Inter ended a seven-match unbeaten home run (four wins, three draws). It is worth noting that over that spell the team conceded more than once only twice, with the second goal against the Milan club coming in stoppage time. Borussia Dortmund have no issues with scoring, but breaking down Inter's defence proved beyond them. Next up is another opponent from this country, one that is not far behind Inter in terms of defensive strength.
The Bergamo club conceded only 10 goals – a figure in line with the top eight from the league phase. Seven of those goals came in just two matches. In attack, however, the team have looked modest, with some clubs that went out of the tournament scoring more than Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a. Away from home, the Italians scored more than once in only one of their four Champions League 2025/26 games. The visitors only really ran riot in the match against Eintracht Frankfurt, whose defence has suffered catastrophic lapses this season. Add to that the fact the team have won just two of their previous six away Champions League matches (one draw, three defeats), and aside from the Frankfurt club they also managed to beat Olympique de Marseille, who ultimately failed to progress.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund, double chance + Under 3.5 goals
