The first UEFA Champions League 2025/26 play-off match between Borussia Dortmund (Germany) and Atalanta (Italy) will take place on 17 February at the Signal Iduna Park. Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Borussia Dortmund
Niko Kovac's men finished 17th in the league phase. The team avoided defeat in five of eight matches (three wins, two draws), but ended the group stage on a three-game winless run featuring two goalless defeats. Even so, with 19 goals scored, Borussia Dortmund were among the top seven for goals. At the same time, Borussia Dortmund conceded 17 goals, and among all the clubs to progress only Qarabag (21) posted a worse figure. The Germans have reached the knockout rounds for the 11th time in the last 14 seasons, although it is worth adding that Borussia Dortmund have failed to get past Italian opposition in their previous three Champions League ties.
- The team have conceded at least two goals in five of their last six Champions League matches.
- On home soil in this tournament, Borussia Dortmund have avoided defeat in seven of their last eight matches (four wins, three draws).
- There have been goals in both halves in six of Borussia Dortmund's last eight home games in the Champions League.
Potential Borussia Dortmund Lineup (3-5-2)
Gregor Kobel – Ramy Bensebaini, Waldemar Anton, Nico Schlotterbeck – Jobe Bellingham, Felix Nmecha, Julian Brandt, Julian Ryerson, Daniel Svensson – Serhou Guirassy, Maximilian Beier.
Defender Filippo Mane is injured.
Atalanta
The Bergamo side finished two points above the Germans in the standings. After a heavy defeat in Matchday 1, the club produced a strong run (four wins, one draw) and began to target a top-eight place, but two defeats sent Raffaele Palladino's men into the play-offs. It is worth noting that among all group-stage participants only Atalanta had an equal number of goals scored and conceded – 10:10. The Italians have reached the knockout rounds for the fourth time in the last seven seasons, but they failed to get through this stage in last season's tournament.
- At least three goals have been scored in 11 of Atalanta's last 14 Champions League matches.
- Away from home in this tournament, the team have avoided defeat in seven of their last 10 matches (five wins, two draws).
- The club have scored more than once in just one of their last five away games in the Champions League.
Potential Atalanta Lineup (3-4-3)
Marco Carnesecchi – Giorgio Scalvini, Onest Ahanor, Berat Djimsiti – Nicola Zalewski, Ederson, Mario Pasalic, Davide Zappacosta – Marten de Roon, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Nikola Krstovic.
Midfielder Charles De Ketelaere is injured.
Referee
Serdar Gozubuyuk (Netherlands)
Matches – 9 (International fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second bookings) – 44;
Yellow cards per match – 4.9;
Red cards shown – 1;
Fouls per match – 29;
Penalties – 44%.
Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta: Match Prediction
Borussia Dortmund have posted excellent home results in the Champions League. The defeat to Inter in the final round ended a seven-game unbeaten home run (four wins, three draws). It should be noted that across that spell the team conceded more than once only twice, with the second goal from the Milan side coming in stoppage time. Borussia Dortmund have not had issues in attack, but they were unable to break down the Italians' defence. Next up is another opponent from that country, one that is not far behind Inter in terms of defensive strength.
Atalanta have conceded just 10 goals – a figure in line with the top eight in the league phase. Seven of those goals came in two matches. However, the team look modest in attack, with some clubs that have been eliminated scoring more than Atalanta. Away from home, the Italians scored more than once in just one of their four games in the Champions League 2025/26. The Bergamo side only really cut loose against Eintracht, whose defence has suffered appalling collapses this season. We should also add that the team have won just two of their last six away matches in the Champions League (one draw, three defeats), and aside from the Frankfurt outfit they also beat Marseille, who ultimately failed to progress.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund, double chance + Under 3.5 goals
