The Matchday 1 clash of the Champions League 2025/26 group stage between Benfica (Portugal) and Qarabag (Azerbaijan) will take place on September 16 at the Estádio da Luz in Lisbon. Benfica vs. Qarabag: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Benfica
The team finished second in the last Portuguese championship and began their Champions League journey from the third qualifying round. Bruno Lage's side defeated Nice (2-0, 2-0) and Fenerbahçe (0-0, 1-0), securing a spot in the main round of this tournament for the fifth consecutive time. During this period, Benfica reached the quarter-finals twice, while last season they were stopped in the Round of 16. Notably, the Portuguese side have avoided defeat in 7 of their last 9 Champions League matches (5 wins, 2 draws).
- The team scored first in 7 of their last 10 Champions League games.
- At home in this tournament, Benfica have not won in 5 of their last 7 matches (2 draws, 3 losses).
- In 5 of their last 7 home games in the Champions League, the Portuguese side have not scored more than two goals.
Predicted lineup for Benfica (4-3-3)
Anatoliy Trubin – António Silva, Samuel Dall, Nicolás Otamendi, Tomás Araújo – Richard Ríos, Enzo Barrenechea, Florentino – Fredrik Aursnes, Evangelos Pavlidis, Kerem Aktürkoğlu.
Defenders Amar Dedić, Alexander Bah, midfielder Manu Silva, and forwards Dodi Lukebakio, Bruma are injured.
Qarabag
For four consecutive seasons, the team has won the Azerbaijani championship, but this is the first time Qarabag has reached the main round of the Champions League. Moreover, it's only the second time in the club's history that they have reached the group stage. In this tournament, Gurban Gurbanov's side overcame Shelbourne (3-0, 1-0), Shkëndija (1-0, 5-1), and Ferencváros (3-1, 2-3). In their last European campaign, Qarabag finished last in the Europa League, taking the 36th spot. Notably, the Azerbaijani side has not drawn any of their last 12 Champions League matches (8 wins, 4 losses).
- The team's scoring streak in the Champions League stands at 6 matches.
- At least three goals have been scored in 5 of Qarabag's last 7 away matches in this tournament.
- The club has won 5 of their last 6 away Champions League matches (1 loss).
Predicted lineup for Qarabag (4-5-1)
Mateusz Kochalski – Behlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliyev – Abdellah Zoubir, Kady, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicallo, Marko Jankovic – Camilo Duran.
Referee
Erik Lambrechts (Belgium)
Matches – 12 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 41;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.4;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 25%.
Benfica vs. Qarabag: Match Prediction
The Azerbaijanis showed excellent results in the qualifying rounds, but one must consider the level of their opponents. It should be much tougher for Qarabag against stronger teams, as evidenced by last season's Europa League. In the group stage of that tournament, Gurban Gurbanov's side suffered 7 defeats, four of which were heavy losses. The club even conceded in the only match they won.
The Portuguese side delivered several exciting and high-scoring matches in last season's Champions League. Against a lower-class opponent, Bruno Lage's side will also showcase attacking football. However, Benfica's defense lacks reliability: in their last 7 home Champions League games, the club conceded 12 goals. Qarabag, having scored in 10 of their last 11 away matches in this tournament, could take advantage of this.
The hosts are expected to secure three points in a high-scoring match. My prediction: Benfica win and Total over 2.5 goals
