The second leg of the 2024/25 Champions League playoff between Benfica (Portugal) and Monaco (France) will take place on February 18 at the Estádio da Luz in Lisbon. The score of the first match is 1-0 in favor of Benfica. Benfica vs. Monaco: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Benfica
Bruno Lage's team secured a 1-0 victory in the first match. To advance to the round of 16, the Portuguese side only needs to avoid defeat in the return leg. Benfica has lost just one of their last five Champions League matches (3 wins, 1 draw). Furthermore, in 3 of their last 4 games in this tournament, they have kept a clean sheet, conceding only to Barcelona.
- At least four goals have been scored in 4 of Benfica's last 5 home matches in the Champions League.
- The club has failed to win 7 of their last 8 home matches in the Champions League (2 draws, 5 losses).
- Benfica has conceded in 9 of their last 11 home games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Benfica (4-3-3)
Anatoliy Trubin – Antonio Silva, Alvaro Carreras, Samuel Dahl, Nicolas Otamendi – Leandro Barreiro, Zeki Amdouni, Orkun Kökçü – Andreas Schjelderup, Vangelis Pavlidis, Kerem Aktürkoğlu.
Midfielder Florentino will miss the match due to yellow card accumulation. Midfielders Renato Sanches, Manu Silva, Fredrik Aursnes, Angel Di Maria, defender Alexander Bah, and forward Tiago Gouveia are injured.
Monaco
The defeat in the previous match was Monaco's fourth in their last five Champions League outings. In the return leg, Adi Hütter's team needs to win by at least two goals in regular time. However, Monaco has won by more than one goal in only one of their last 13 Champions League matches. If the French side defeats Benfica by exactly one goal, extra time will be required. Notably, Monaco has not beaten Portuguese clubs in their last nine European encounters.
- At least one team failed to score in 5 of Monaco's last 6 Champions League matches.
- The club has not won 12 of their last 14 away matches in this tournament (6 draws, 6 losses in 90 minutes).
- Monaco has conceded at least two goals in 5 of their last 6 away games in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Monaco (4-4-2)
Radoslaw Majecki – Vanderson, Thilo Kehrer, Mohammed Salisu, Caio Henrique – Eliesse Ben Seghir, Takumi Minamino, Lamine Camara, Maghnes Akliouche – Myron Boadu, Breel Embolo.
Due to suspensions, midfielders Al Musrati and Denis Zakaria, as well as defender Vanderson, are unavailable. Defenders Wilfried Singo, Soungoutou Magassa, midfielder Aleksandr Golovin, and forward Folarin Balogun are injured.
Referee
Glenn Nyberg (Sweden)
Matches – 8 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 23;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.9;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 25%.
Benfica vs. Monaco: Match Prediction
The first leg could have produced more goals. Both teams had chances, but their finishing let them down. I expect the return match to be end-to-end. Monaco has no choice but to attack, and Benfica will likely embrace this approach and try to catch their opponents on the counter. The defensive issues on both sides will only add to the goal-scoring potential.
The Portuguese side has conceded in 9 of their last 11 home matches in the Champions League, including at least twice in six of those games. It's worth recalling one of the most thrilling events of the main stage of the Champions League – the match between Benfica and Barcelona, which ended in a 4-5 goal fest.
Monaco, meanwhile, has only kept a clean sheet against Bologna, the lowest-scoring team of the main stage, in their last six away matches in the Champions League. Adi Hütter's team has not conceded fewer than two goals in this stretch.
My prediction: Total over 2.5 goals
