The first leg of the 2024/25 Champions League Round of 16 between Benfica (Portugal) and Barcelona (Spain) will take place on March 5 at the Estádio da Luz in Lisbon. Benfica vs. Barcelona: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Benfica
The Lisbon team overcame Monaco in the playoffs, advancing thanks to an away victory (1-0 and 3-3). Notably, in their last six Champions League matches, the team has only suffered one defeat, with three wins and two draws. This marks the third time in the last four seasons that the Portuguese side has reached the Round of 16 in this tournament. On the two previous occasions, the club progressed past this stage.
- The team has not lost in 9 of their last 12 Champions League games (6 wins and 3 draws).
- Benfica has opened the scoring in their last four matches in this European competition.
- At least four goals have been scored in 5 of Benfica's last 6 home matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Benfica (4-3-3)
Anatoliy Trubin – António Silva, Álvaro Carreras, Samuel Dall, Nicolás Otamendi – Leandro Barreiro, Zeki Amdouni, Orkun Kökçü – Andreas Schjelderup, Vangelis Pavlidis, Kerem Aktürkoğlu.
Midfielders Renato Sanches and Manu Silva, defender Alexander Bah, and forward Tiago Gouveia will miss the match due to injuries.
Barcelona
In the 2021/22 and 2022/23 seasons, the Spaniards failed to reach the Champions League playoffs. However, in the last edition, the Catalans made it to the quarter-finals of the tournament, where they were defeated by PSG (3-2 and 1-4). Once again, the team has advanced to the Round of 16: in the group stage, Hans Flick's side finished second, securing 6 wins in 8 games (1 draw and 1 defeat). It's also worth noting that Barcelona's matches have been the most prolific in the main stage of this European competition, with an average of 5.1 goals, and the team has been the best in attack (28 goals).
- Both teams scored in 12 of Barcelona's last 14 Champions League matches.
- At least three goals were scored in Barcelona's last 11 matches in this tournament.
- In the last seven group stage matches, the club has scored at least two goals.
Predicted lineup for Barcelona (4-3-3)
Wojciech Szczęsny – Jules Koundé, Eric García, Pau Cubarsi, Alejandro Baldé – Marc Casadó, Pedri, Fermín López – Lamine Yamal, Raphinha Dias, Robert Lewandowski.
Due to injuries, goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen, defender Andreas Christensen, and midfielder Marc Bernal are unavailable.
Referee
Felix Zwayer (Germany)
Matches – 8 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 49;
Average yellow cards per match – 6.1;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 25%.
Benfica vs. Barcelona: Match Prediction
The matches between these teams in the current Champions League are notable for their high scoring. It's worth recalling their head-to-head encounter in the 7th round of the group stage in Lisbon, which ended with a hockey-like score of 5-4 in favor of the Spaniards. Additionally, Benfica's home games in this tournament have seen at least four goals scored in five of their last six matches.
As noted above, Barcelona's group stage matches have been the most prolific. In eight matches at the main stage, at least four goals were scored six times. Moreover, in all five of Barcelona's previous away games in this tournament, at least three goals were scored.
I predict that the first game will see three or more goals. Both teams score, on average, more than two goals per match in their respective leagues. My prediction: Total over 3
