The first leg of the 2024/25 Champions League quarter-final between Bayern Munich (Germany) and Inter Milan (Italy) will take place on April 8 at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Bayern vs. Inter: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Bayern Munich
Vincent Kompany's side reached the quarter-finals after navigating two playoff rounds. First, Bayern overcame Celtic (2-1 and 1-1), then comfortably defeated Bayer Leverkusen over two legs (3-0 and 2-0). As a result, the Germans head into the clash with Inter on a five-match unbeaten run in the Champions League (4 wins, 1 draw). Additionally, Bayern has shown high scoring prowess in this European campaign, netting 28 goals, second only to Barcelona (32).
- The team has not lost in regular time in their last 22 home matches in the Champions League (17 wins, 5 draws).
- The Germans have not conceded more than one goal in 90 minutes in 9 of their last 11 home games in this European competition.
- Bayern scored in the second half in 8 of their last 9 home matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Bayern Munich (4-5-1)
Jonas Urbig – Konrad Laimer, Eric Dier, Raphael Guerreiro, Kim Min-jae – Leroy Sane, Michael Olise, Thomas Muller, Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka – Harry Kane.
Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, defenders Dayot Upamecano, Alphonso Davies, and Hiroki Ito, midfielders Alexander Pavlovic and Jamal Musiala, and forward Kingsley Coman are injured.
Inter Milan
Simone Inzaghi's side advanced to the quarter-finals after bypassing the playoff stage by finishing in the top-8 during the group stage. In the round of 16, Inter faced Feyenoord and encountered no serious problems: after a 2-0 away win, the Italians secured their success in the home match (2-1). As a result, the club has won 8 of their last 9 Champions League games, keeping clean sheets in seven of those matches. Overall, Inter has conceded just two goals in this tournament, leading by a significant margin in this statistic.
- The club has not lost in regular time in 7 of their last 9 away matches in the Champions League (4 wins, 3 draws).
- No more than two goals were scored in 90 minutes in five of the team's previous away games in this European competition.
- The Italians have not conceded more than one goal in regular time in 11 of their last 13 away matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Inter Milan (3-5-2)
Yann Sommer – Francesco Acerbi, Alessandro Bastoni, Benjamin Pavard – Federico Dimarco, Hakan Calhanoglu, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Nicolo Barella, Matteo Darmian – Lautaro Martinez, Marcus Thuram.
Defender Denzel Dumfries, midfielder Piotr Zielinski, and forward Mehdi Taremi are sidelined due to injuries. Midfielder Kristjan Asllani is suspended.
Referee
Sandro Schärer (Switzerland)
Matches – 12 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 39;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 25%.
Bayern Munich vs. Inter Milan: Match Prediction
In my opinion, this encounter is unlikely to be high-scoring. Bayern possesses a strong attacking line, but the team does not always manage to fully exploit its offensive potential. The Germans played 12 matches in the current Champions League and scored no more than once in half of them. In 3 out of 4 instances where Bayern scored at least three times, their opponents were teams that didn't even make it to the playoffs (Dinamo Zagreb, Shakhtar, and Slovan).
Bayern may face significant difficulties in breaking through Inter's defense, which has performed exceptionally well in this Champions League. Meanwhile, the Italians have been solid defensively even on the road: in 12 previous away matches in this European competition, the team only conceded more than one goal twice. At the same time, the Milanese side hasn't been particularly prolific themselves: in 7 of their last 9 away games in the Champions League, they scored no more than once.
It's also worth noting that in neither of the two previous head-to-head encounters in the Champions League did the teams score more than two goals. I expect a low-scoring match this time as well, so my prediction: Total under 2.5 goals
