The second leg of the 2025/26 Champions League last-16 tie between Bayern Munich (Germany) and Atalanta BC (Italy) will take place on 18 March at the Allianz Arena in Munich. The score in the first leg was 6:1 in favour of Bayern Munich. Bayern Munich vs Atalanta BC: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Bayern Munich
Vincent Kompany’s men all but settled the qualification issue in Italy. By thrashing Atalanta BC 6:1, the team claimed a fourth straight win in the Champions League. What is more, the Munich side scored at least twice in every match during that run. However, Bayern Munich have allowed plenty at the back: the club have conceded in five of their previous six games in this tournament. In the return match, the Germans would even be satisfied with a four-goal defeat, while the team have never lost by a margin of more than four goals in European competition. In addition, the Munich side have won 13 of their previous 14 Champions League last-16 ties.
- Both teams to score landed in five of Bayern Munich’s last six Champions League matches.
- In this tournament, the club are on a four-match winning run at home.
- At least three goals were scored in five of the Germans’ previous six home games in the Champions League.
Potential Bayern Munich Lineup (4-5-1)
Jonas Urbig – Konrad Laimer, Josip Stanisic, Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Tah – Tom Bischof, Lennart Karl, Leon Goretzka, Luis Diaz, Aleksandar Pavlovic – Harry Kane.
Defenders Alphonso Davies, Hiroki Ito, midfielder Jamal Musiala, and goalkeepers Sven Ulreich and Manuel Neuer are injured. Midfielders Joshua Kimmich and Michael Olise are suspended.
Atalanta BC
The Bergamo side have conceded six goals on the international stage for the first time. Although the Italians have won three of their last five two-legged European ties against German clubs, producing another positive outcome after such a heavy defeat looks virtually unrealistic. For Raffaele Palladino’s men to take the tie at least to extra time, they would need to win the return leg by exactly five goals. It is worth noting that in the previous edition of the tournament Atalanta BC managed two such wins, but the opponents were far less formidable than Bayern Munich.
- The team have lost four of their previous five Champions League matches (one win).
- The Bergamo side have scored in six of their last eight Champions League games.
- No more than three goals were scored in five of Atalanta BC’s previous six away matches in this tournament.
Potential Atalanta BC Lineup (3-4-3)
Marco Carnesecchi – Sead Kolasinac, Isak Hien, Berat Djimsiti – Nicola Zalewski, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Mario Pasalic, Davide Zappacosta – Marten de Roon, Gianluca Scamacca, Lazar Samardzic.
Forward Giacomo Raspadori is injured. Defender Odilon Kossounou is suspended.
Referee
Benoit Bastien (France)
Matches – 6 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 36;
Average yellow cards per match – 6;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 29;
Penalties – 83%.
Bayern Munich vs Atalanta BC: Match Prediction
In the previous match, the Munich side scored six even without Harry Kane. The second leg is turning into a formality, and nobody is capable of overturning such a deficit against the Munich side in their current form. As for Atalanta BC, they have just two wins in their last seven away Champions League matches (one draw, four defeats). Still, the Bergamo side will at least try to bow out with a statement.
The Italians have scored in six of their last eight Champions League matches, and during that run they managed to net seven goals against two German representatives. Raffaele Palladino’s men have nothing to lose, the result is not weighing on them, so the team can calmly spend a lot of time on the attack. Especially as the Munich side allow chances at the back, and they are currently having problems in goal as well.
The Germans have conceded in five of their previous six games in the Champions League. In the last Bundesliga round, the team came through a gruelling match against Bayer, which took plenty of energy and emotion. At the same time, two Bayern Munich players at the end of the match in Italy, understanding how the tie was going, even decided to wipe their yellow-card tallies. All signs suggest Vincent Kompany’s men are expecting an easy ride, and that is usually a recipe for trouble.
Prediction: Atalanta BC, over 0.5 goals
