The first leg of the 2025/26 Champions League round of 16 between Bayer 04 Leverkusen (Germany) and Arsenal (England) will take place on 11 March at the BayArena in Leverkusen. Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Arsenal: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen proved too strong for Olympiacos in the play-off ties. After winning 2:0 away from home, Kasper Hjulmand's men settled for a draw at home (0:0). It is worth noting that the Germans have lost just one of their last seven Champions League matches (4 wins, 2 draws), and in five games during that run they kept a clean sheet. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have reached the round of 16 for a second straight season, but on each of the last six occasions the team have failed to progress beyond this stage. However, in their previous five knockout ties against English clubs in European competition, the Germans have come out on top four times.
- At least one side failed to score in six of Bayer 04 Leverkusen's last seven Champions League matches.
- On home soil, the club have avoided defeat in five of their previous six matches in this tournament (3 draws, 2 defeats).
- In seven of their last 10 home Champions League games, the team have conceded no more than once.
Potential Bayer 04 Leverkusen Lineup (3-4-3)
Janis Blaswich – Robert Andrich, Jarell Quansah, Edmond Tapsoba – Alejandro Grimaldo, Ibrahim Maza, Aleix Garcia, Exequiel Palacios – Malik Tillman, Martin Terrier, Ernest Poku.
Goalkeeper Mark Flekken, defenders Lucas Vazquez, Arthur, Loic Bade and forward Nathan Tella are injured.
Arsenal
The London side finished the league phase in first place, with Arsenal becoming the first team to complete it without dropping a single point. Arteta's men also posted the best attacking record (23 goals) and were impressively solid at the back, recording five clean sheets. It is also worth noting that the English club have reached the round of 16 in 18 consecutive seasons in which they have taken part. However, they have progressed further in the competition only seven times during that period.
- In their last six Champions League matches, the club have scored at least three goals.
- Away from home, the Londoners have won eight of their previous nine Champions League matches (1 defeat).
- Arsenal have scored first in eight straight games in this tournament.
Potential Arsenal Lineup (3-4-3)
Kepa Arrizabalaga – Jurrien Timber, Christian Mosquera, Riccardo Calafiori – Martin Zubimendi, Eberechi Eze, Declan Rice, Myles Lewis-Skelly – Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka.
Due to injury, midfielders Martin Odegaard, Mikel Merino, and defenders Ben White, William Saliba are unavailable.
Referee
Halil Umut Meler (Turkey)
Matches – 6 (International fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 29;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Fouls per match on average – 26;
Penalties – 33%.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Arsenal: Match Prediction
In the second leg against the Greeks, Bayer 04 Leverkusen opted for a pragmatic approach and focused on protecting the advantage they had earned. The team executed the plan superbly, registering their fifth clean sheet of the current tournament. In this upcoming match, Kasper Hjulmand's men will need to be proactive going forward, as they would ideally like to travel to London with some kind of cushion. But how do you score against an opponent who also have five clean sheets and have conceded just once away from home in the 2025/26 Champions League?
At the same time, Bayer 04 Leverkusen have not looked particularly formidable on their own patch. The team have won only one of their last six home Champions League matches (3 draws, 2 defeats). What is more, across their previous 12 matches in the Champions League round of 16, the club have won just once. Arsenal, meanwhile, have produced outstanding results away from home in this tournament, claiming eight wins in their last nine matches, with the only defeat coming against last season's champions.
Prediction: Arsenal, double chance + Under 3.5 goals
