The return leg of the 2025/26 Champions League last-16 tie between Barcelona (Spain) and Newcastle United (England) will take place on 18 March at Camp Nou. The score in the first leg was 1:1. Barcelona vs Newcastle United: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Barcelona
After their trip to Newcastle, Barcelona saw their three-match winning run in the Champions League come to an end. On the other hand, they are now unbeaten in four straight games in this competition. The home team once again failed to keep a clean sheet, with their last shutout in European competition coming back in spring of last year. At the same time, they have failed to score in just one of their last 29 Champions League matches. Now, to avoid spending energy on extra time, the club need to win in 90 minutes. Notably, Barcelona have won 15 of their previous 16 two-legged ties in the Champions League last 16, including each of their last five duels against English opposition. The Spaniards have also progressed in 11 of the last 14 cases when a European tie began with a 1:1 draw.
- The club have avoided defeat in 10 of their last 11 home games in the Champions League (8 wins, 2 draws).
- Barcelona's home scoring run in this tournament has now reached 16 matches.
- The Spaniards have scored at least two goals in 10 of their last 11 Champions League matches in front of their own fans.
Potential Barcelona Lineup (4-2-3-1)
Joan Garcia - Joao Cancelo, Pau Cubarsi, Eric Garcia, Gerard Martin - Marc Bernal, Pedri - Fermin Lopez, Lamine Yamal, Raphinha - Ferran Torres.
Defenders Jules Kounde, Alex Balde and Andreas Christensen, as well as midfielder Frenkie de Jong, are not ready due to injury.
Newcastle United
A week ago, Newcastle United failed to hold on to a win that could have been their third in a row in the Champions League, but the visitors' unbeaten run in Europe has now reached six matches. However, half of those games ended in draws. It is also notable that both teams scored in five of those six matches, including in each of the last four. Newcastle United themselves have found the net in 13 Champions League matches in a row. Across their 11 games in this season's competition, the club have suffered only two defeats. It is worth noting that the away team have avoided defeat in the return leg in nine of their last 10 two-legged UEFA ties (7 wins, 2 draws). At the same time, Newcastle United have lost four of their last five away matches against Spanish teams in European competition.
- The club have won with a (+1.5) handicap in 13 straight Champions League games.
- At least two goals have been scored in seven consecutive away matches for the English side in this tournament.
- Newcastle United have conceded in six of their last seven Champions League matches.
Potential Newcastle United Lineup (4-3-3)
Aaron Ramsdale - Lewis Hall, Kieran Trippier, Dan Burn, Malick Thiaw - Sandro Tonali, Joelinton, Jacob Ramsey - Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes, William Osula.
Due to injuries, defender Fabian Schar and midfielders Lewis Miley and Bruno Guimaraes will miss the match. The participation of midfielder Joe Willock is in doubt.
Referee
Francois Letexier (France)
Matches - 11 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) - 28;
Yellow cards per match on average - 2.5;
Red cards shown - 1;
Fouls per match on average - 20;
Penalties - 27%.
Barcelona vs Newcastle United: Match Prediction
The first leg in England was not particularly high-scoring, but in general, games like that can be considered a rare occurrence for both sides. Before that, in this Champions League season, Barcelona had played only high-scoring matches, and if we include last season's campaign, at least three goals were scored in 13 straight games for the club in European competition. If we look at their home figures, the three-goal mark has consistently been reached in 19 consecutive Champions League matches for the Spaniards. It is also worth adding that both teams scored in each of the last five matches in that run.
Both teams to score has also landed in six of the last seven European matches involving Newcastle United. Only two of the seven games in that spell were low-scoring. Notably, the trends also carry over to away fixtures. We have seen at least three goals in four of the last five away matches for the English side in the Champions League, and in each of the last four such cases, at least one goal was scored by both teams.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes + Over 2.5 goals
