The 2024 Copa Libertadores final between Atletico Mineiro (Brazil) and Botafogo (Brazil) will take place on November 30 at the Monumental Stadium in Buenos Aires. Atletico Mineiro vs. Botafogo: prediction and statistics.
Referee: Facundo Tello (Argentina)
Matches – 11 (International matches, 2024);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 47;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 9%.
Predicted lineups for Atletico Mineiro vs. Botafogo
Atletico Mineiro (3-4-3): Everson – Lyanco Vojnovic, Rodrigo Battaglia, Junior Alonso – Gustavo Scarpa, Alan Franco Palma, Fausto Vera, Guilherme Arana – Hulk, Paulinho, Deyverson.
Botafogo (4-2-3-1): John Furtado – Vitinho, Bastos, Adryelson, Alex Telles – Danilo Barbosa, Marlon Freitas – Che Che, Jefferson Savarino, Matheus Martins – Tiquinho Soares.
Each team's starting lineup from their previous match in this tournament is listed.
Atletico Mineiro
Gabriel Milito's side confidently advanced through the semi-final stage, defeating River Plate. The team knocked out the Argentinians with a 3-0 home win in the first match and comfortably played out a goalless draw in the second leg. On their way to the final, the Brazilian club suffered only two defeats, securing eight wins and two draws. This is only Atletico Mineiro's second appearance in the Copa Libertadores final – they won the tournament in 2013, defeating Paraguay's Olimpia on penalties.
- At least one team failed to score in 8 of Atletico Mineiro's last 9 Copa Libertadores games.
- No more than two goals were scored in 5 of their last 6 matches in this tournament.
- In 8 of their last 9 Copa Libertadores encounters, one team won with a clean sheet in the second half.
Botafogo
The team had a poor start in this season's Copa Libertadores, suffering two consecutive defeats. However, up to the semi-finals, the Brazilian club remained unbeaten in regular time, achieving 4 wins and 4 draws. In the previous stage, Botafogo secured their place in the final with a dominant 5-0 home victory over Penarol. In the return leg, the club allowed themselves to lose by the necessary margin – 1-3. The team has never reached the final before.
Defender Mateo Ponte will miss the match due to suspension.
- Botafogo has not conceded more than one goal in 90 minutes in 9 of their last 11 Copa Libertadores matches.
- The first half ended in a draw in 7 of their last 10 games in this tournament.
- The team opened the scoring in 7 of their last 10 Copa Libertadores matches.
Atletico Mineiro vs. Botafogo: Match Prediction
Bookmakers favor the nominal visitors in the upcoming final, and not without reason. Botafogo's current form is much better, as they lead the Brazilian championship. Meanwhile, Atletico Mineiro is only in the middle of the league table. Gabriel Milito's side has not won in nine consecutive official matches (Serie A, Copa do Brasil, and Copa Libertadores). On the other hand, Arthur Jorge's team has lost only once in their last 19 official games.
Just 10 days ago, the opponents faced each other in Serie A. Atletico Mineiro played at home but only managed a goalless draw, while Botafogo completely outplayed their opponents in all aspects: shots on goal – 27:3, corners – 11:1, possession – 70:30, xG – 2.11:0.09. In the first round of the Brazilian championship, Botafogo already defeated their compatriots 3-0 at home. Additionally, in the last five head-to-head meetings in Serie A, Atletico Mineiro has won only once (1 draw and 3 losses).
My prediction – Copa Libertadores Winner – Botafogo
