The semi-final match of the Spanish Super Cup between Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid will take place on 8 January at Prince Abdullah Al-Faisal Stadium in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia). Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid finished third in La Liga last season, which qualified the home side to compete in the Spanish Super Cup. The side are preparing to take part in this tournament for the 10th time; in nine previous appearances the team won two trophies, the last of which was in 2014. The home side missed the last edition of the Super Cup — in 2024 they were eliminated at the semi-final stage, losing a high-scoring derby with Real after extra time (3:5).
- The team won 9 of their 11 previous matches in La Liga and the Copa del Rey.
- The home side’s uncompromising run in Spanish competitions spans 11 matches (9 wins, 2 defeats).
- At least 2 goals were scored in 5 of Atlético’s last 6 games in La Liga and the national cup.
Potential Atlético Madrid Lineup (4-4-2)*
Jan Oblak – Marcos Llorente, Marc Pubill, David Gantsko, Matteo Ruggeri – Pablo Barrios, Koke, Alex Baena, Giuliano Simeone – Alexander Sorloth, Julian Alvarez.
Defender Clément Lenglet is not available due to injury.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid finished second in La Liga last season, and the visiting team also reached the Copa del Rey final, which earned them the right to take part in the Super Cup. Throughout their history the club have appeared in this tournament 21 times, winning the trophy on 13 occasions — only Barcelona (15) have more titles. The last time the team lifted this cup was in 2024, when they thrashed Barcelona 4:1 in the final. In the previous edition of the Super Cup the visiting team suffered a heavy defeat to their Catalan rivals (2:5).
- At least 2 goals were scored in 5 of Real’s last 7 matches in La Liga and the Copa del Rey.
- The club’s uncompromising run in Spanish competitions currently stands at 5 matches (4 wins, 1 defeat).
- The team conceded in 5 of their last 7 matches in La Liga and the national cup.
Potential Real Madrid Lineup (4-3-3)*
Thibaut Courtois – Federico Valverde, Raul Asensio, Antonio Rüdiger, Alvaro Carreras – Eduardo Camavinga, Aurelien Tchouameni, Jude Bellingham – Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior, Gonzalo Garcia.
Midfielder Brahim Diaz is unavailable due to participation in the Africa Cup of Nations, forward Endrick has moved to Lyon on loan. Defenders Trent Alexander-Arnold and Eder Militao will miss the match due to injury. Forward Kylian Mbappé was named in the tournament squad, but his participation in the semi-final is highly unlikely.
Referee
Mateo Busquets (Italy)
Matches – 7 (the Copa del Rey, 2023/24–2025/26);
Yellow/Red Cards Shown (Including Second Yellows) – 33;
Average Yellow/Red Cards Per Match – 4.7;
Red Cards Shown – 1;
Fouls Per Match – 25;
Penalties – 57%.
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid: Match Prediction
The Madrid derby regularly produces bright and tense matches, and it is rare in these games for one of the rivals to fail to score at least one goal. As evidence, both teams have scored in each of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between Atlético and Real in La Liga, the Copa del Rey and the Spanish Super Cup.
Looking at the clubs individually, the home side scored in 20 of their 21 previous matches in the league and the national cup. However, towards the end of 2025 the side began to make more defensive errors — as a result, in their last five games in Spanish competitions the team kept a clean sheet only once. The visitors, for their part, scored in 6 of their last 7 matches in La Liga and the Copa del Rey, while keeping a clean sheet in only 2 of those 7 games.
Prediction: Both teams to score
* For each team the starting lineup is shown from their previous match.
