The first leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final between Athletic Club and Real Sociedad will take place on 11 February at the San Mames in Bilbao. Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Athletic Club
In the previous round, the home team snatched victory over Valencia thanks to a 90th-minute goal (2:1). It was the first time in this season’s Copa del Rey that Athletic Club got the job done in normal time, having previously beaten Ourense and Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa only after extra time. Reaching the semi-finals can hardly be called a major event, as the club have made it to this stage for the sixth time in the last seven seasons. Two years ago, the side even won the trophy, beating Mallorca in a penalty shootout. Overall, Athletic Club have won the national cup 24 times, with only Barcelona (32) lifting more trophies in total.
- The Basques have avoided defeat in normal time in 13 of their last 14 Copa del Rey matches (7 wins, 6 draws).
- The club’s scoring run at home in this competition stands at 14 matches.
- At least two goals have been scored in Athletic Club’s last five home matches in the Copa del Rey.
Potential Athletic Club Lineup (4-2-3-1)*
Unai Simon – Andoni Gorosabel, Aitor Paredes, Aymeric Laporte, Yuri Berchiche – Mikel Jauregizar, Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta – Nico Williams, Nico Serrano, Gorka Guruzeta – Inaki Williams.
Due to injuries, the home side will be without defenders Dani Vivian and Unai Egiluz, midfielders Oihan Sancet and Benat Prados, as well as forwards Alex Berenguer and Maroan Sannadi.
Real Sociedad
Ahead of the derby against Athletic Club, the visitors have already come through five rounds of the cup – the longest run among the remaining teams in the competition. In the last two rounds, Real Sociedad faced La Liga opposition: first beating Osasuna on penalties, then producing a thrilling comeback away to Alaves (3:2). Before that, the Basques saw off Negreira, Reddis and Eldense with an aggregate score of 7:1. The team will play in the national cup semi-finals for the third year in a row, but in the previous two campaigns this round proved to be the end of the road. They have not reached the final since the 2019/20 season, when Real Sociedad beat Athletic Club (1:0) to win the Copa del Rey for the third time in their history.
- The club have won in normal time in six straight away matches in the Copa del Rey.
- The Basques’ scoring run in this competition has reached six games.
- Real Sociedad have won with a (+1.5) handicap in 24 consecutive matches in the national cup.
Potential Real Sociedad Lineup (4-4-2)*
Alejandro Remiro – Igor Zubeldia, Duje Caleta-Car, Alvaro Odriozola, Sergio Gomez – Jon Gorrotxategi, Goncalo Guedes, Carlos Soler, Pablo Marin – Luka Sucic, Mikel Oyarzabal.
Due to fitness issues, midfielders Luka Sucic, Ander Barrenetxea, Arsen Zakharyan and Takefusa Kubo, as well as goalkeeper Unai Marrero, are not ready for the match.
Referee
Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez (Spain)
Matches – 9 (La Liga, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 37;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.1;
Red cards shown – 3;
Fouls per match – 27;
Penalties – 44%.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: Match Prediction
The two sides have reached the semi-finals largely thanks to their attacking output. Although Athletic Club scored only in extra time in their first cup match, over the next two games the team netted six goals in total, five of them in normal time. Overall, the Basques have scored within 90 minutes in 12 of their last 14 matches in this competition. At the same time, Athletic Club do not keep clean sheets particularly often, with only two of their last six Copa del Rey matches ending without conceding.
Real Sociedad have scored consistently across six matches in the national cup, and in every case the team have found the net at least twice. However, they have rarely been able to match that level defensively – as a result, both teams have scored in four of those six games, including each of the last three.
Most likely, the teams will also create at least one clear chance each to score in this head-to-head.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
* The starting line-ups for each team are from their previous match.
