The Matchday 3 encounter of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Athletic (Spain) and Qarabag (Azerbaijan) is scheduled for October 22 at the San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao. Athletic vs. Qarabag: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Athletic Bilbao
Ernesto Valverde's side suffered defeats in their first two matches, facing Arsenal (0-2) and Borussia Dortmund (1-4). Consequently, the team's losing streak in European competitions has reached four matches, a first in the club's history. During this stretch, the Basques conceded 13 goals. However, the Spanish side has consistently found the net, scoring in 21 of their last 22 international matches. In the standings, the club is in 34th place, also ranking among the five lowest-scoring teams.
- At home, the team has won 6 of their last 8 European matches (2 losses).
- The Spaniards opened the scoring in 5 of their last 7 home matches on the international stage.
- At San Mamés, Athletic has not conceded more than one goal in 6 of their last 8 European encounters.
Predicted lineup for Athletic Bilbao (4-5-1)
Unai Simón – Andoni Gorosabel, Daniel Vivian, Aitor Paredes, Iñigo Lekue – Unai Gómez, Mikel Haurregui, Nico Williams, Alejandro Rego, Álex Berenguer – Gorka Guruzeta.
Midfielder Beñat Prados will miss the match due to injury.
Qarabag
The Azerbaijani side remains unbeaten. After defeating Benfica away (3-2), they secured a home win against Copenhagen (2-0). Notably, Gurban Gurbanov's team kept a clean sheet for the first time in their last five Champions League matches. Despite these defensive stats, Qarabag continues to excel, winning 7 of their last 8 games in this tournament (1 loss). In 5 of these matches, the Aghdam team scored at least two goals. In the standings, they are in 6th place.
- At least one goal has been scored in both halves in Qarabag's last 5 Champions League games.
- The team has not drawn in their last 13 away matches in this tournament (8 wins, 5 losses).
- At least three goals have been scored in 5 of Qarabag's last 6 away games in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Qarabag (4-5-1)
Mateusz Kochalski – Behlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Elvin Jafarghuliyev – Abdellah Zoubir, Kady, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicalho, Marko Jankovic – Camilo Duran.
Referee
Igor Pajač (Croatia)
Matches – 5 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 17;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.4;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 20%.
Match Prediction: Athletic vs. Qarabag
The Azerbaijani side were underdogs even in their home clash with Copenhagen. However, Gurban Gurbanov's team defied the odds, securing their second consecutive victory in the main stage. Bookmakers continue to doubt Qarabag, offering favorable odds even for a single goal by the team. Meanwhile, the club has an 8-match scoring streak in the Champions League, scoring at least twice in 6 of these games.
On the other hand, Athletic has not been reliable defensively. In the current Champions League campaign, they have already conceded six goals, and at home, they have failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 international matches. Overall, the Spanish side has managed only two clean sheets in 12 official games this season. It remains unclear how Ernesto Valverde's team will contain the attack of their upcoming opponent with such defensive issues.
My prediction: Qarabag Individual Total Over 0.5
