The Matchday 1 clash of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Ajax (Netherlands) and Inter Milan (Italy) will take place on September 17 at the Johan Cruyff Arena in Amsterdam. Ajax vs. Inter: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Ajax
The team qualified for the group stage by finishing second in last season's Dutch Eredivisie. Ajax will participate in the main draw of the Champions League for the first time in three years, although they previously competed in the group stage of this European competition for five consecutive seasons. The club's best achievement in the Champions League in the 21st century is reaching the semi-finals in the 2018/19 season. Notably, in their last five matches in this tournament, the Amsterdam side suffered four defeats, conceding 16 goals during this stretch. Additionally, Ajax has failed to win in their last seven European matches against Italian teams (2 draws, 5 losses).
- At least three goals have been scored in regular time in 5 of the team's last 6 home matches in the Champions League.
- At least one of the opponents failed to score in 6 of the club's previous 8 home encounters in this European competition.
- The Amsterdam team has conceded no more than one goal in regular time in 11 of their last 14 home games in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Ajax (4-5-1)
Vitezslav Jaros – Anton Goei, Ko Itakura, Jurriën Timber, Owen Wijndal – Raul Moro, Davy Klaassen, Jurriën Regeer, Kenneth Taylor, Mika Godts – Wout Weghorst.
Midfielders Steven Berghuis and Branco van den Boomen will miss the match due to injuries.
Inter Milan
The Milan side finished second in last season's Serie A, earning a direct spot in the Champions League group stage. Inter will participate in the main draw of this European competition for the eighth consecutive season, and in the previous Champions League, they reached the final, where they suffered a heavy defeat to PSG (0-5). It's worth noting that the club has not won in regular time in their last four matches in this tournament (3 draws, 1 loss) and conceded 13 goals during this period. Also, Inter has not lost to Dutch opponents in 13 matches (9 wins, 4 draws).
- The team has not lost in regular time in 9 of their last 11 away matches in the Champions League (5 wins, 4 draws).
- At least one of the opponents failed to score in 5 of the club's previous 7 away games in this European competition.
- No more than two goals have been scored in regular time in 5 of Inter's last 7 away matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Inter Milan (3-5-2)
Yann Sommer – Manuel Akanji, Stefan de Vrij, Alessandro Bastoni – Denzel Dumfries, Petar Sucic, Davide Frattesi, Hakan Calhanoglu, Federico Dimarco – Francesco Esposito, Marcus Thuram.
Defender Matteo Darmian will miss the match due to injury. Forward Lautaro Martinez might remain on the bench due to a minor injury.
Referee
Michael Oliver (England)
Matches – 19 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 77;
Average yellow cards per match – 4;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 32%.
Ajax vs. Inter: Match Prediction
The Amsterdam side has had mixed success at home in recent Champions League matches, but they have often managed to effectively contain opponents' attacks. In their last 14 home matches in this European competition, Ajax conceded more than one goal only three times, and in five instances, they managed to keep a clean sheet.
Inter, on the other hand, impressed with their defensive play in the previous Champions League, although they did not show high scoring prowess, only improving their attack in the playoffs. Overall, in their last 11 away matches in this tournament, the team scored more than one goal in only four games, and twice they failed to score at all. Notably, Inter scored a maximum of one goal in matches against less high-profile opponents such as Sparta Prague and Young Boys.
I expect a solid defensive performance from Ajax, and my prediction: Inter individual total under 1.5 goals
