The second leg of the 2025/26 UEFA Conference League round-of-16 tie between AEK Larnaca (Cyprus) and Crystal Palace (England) will take place on 19 March at the AEK Arena. The first leg ended 0:0. AEK Larnaca vs Crystal Palace: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
AEK Larnaca
Judging by the starting XI, which featured five defenders, the Cypriots went into the first leg looking to play out a 0:0, and they managed to do exactly that. AEK Larnaca spent the entire match sitting deep and, for the second time this season, managed to keep the Londoners from scoring. It is worth recalling that, in the league phase, the club even won 1:0. Interestingly, that was the fourth draw in their last five UEFA Conference League matches, with three of those ending goalless. Now the home team must win at home to reach the quarter-finals. Notably, AEK Larnaca have never progressed beyond the round of 16 before (in 2022/23, they also reached this stage of the UEFA Conference League).
- The islanders are now on a seven-match unbeaten run in this competition (3 wins and 4 draws).
- No more than one goal has been scored in five of AEK Larnaca's last six matches in the UEFA Conference League.
- The team have kept a clean sheet in six of their last seven games in this European competition.
Potential AEK Larnaca Lineup (5-4-1)*
Zlatan Alomerovic – Godswill Ekpolo, Hrvoje Milicevic, Enric Saborit, Angel Garcia, Jorge Miramon – Gus Ledes, Pere Pons, Markus Rohden, Djordje Ivanovic – Riad Bajic.
Crystal Palace
The Londoners had a dominant advantage in the first leg, but still could not produce a single decisive attack. Crystal Palace had 71% territorial dominance, outshot their opponents 13-2, and also looked far more threatening on xG at 1.98:0.23. At the same time, they kept a clean sheet for the second match in a row in this tournament. To reach the quarter-finals in their debut European campaign, they must beat the Cypriots on their own ground. If it finishes level again, extra time will be played.
- The English side are unbeaten in five straight matches in the UEFA Conference League (2 wins and 3 draws).
- At least two goals have been scored in six of Crystal Palace's last seven games in this competition.
- Away from home in this European competition, the club have played five matches and suffered just one defeat (2 wins and 2 draws).
Potential Crystal Palace Lineup (3-4-3)*
Dean Henderson – Chris Richards, Jeydi Kanvot, Maxence Lacroix – Tyrick Mitchell, Adam Wharton, Daichi Kamada, Brennan Johnson – Evann Guessand, Ismaila Sarr, Jorgen Larsen.
Referee
Aliyar Aghayev (Azerbaijan)
Matches – 7 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second bookings) – 29;
Yellow cards per match – 4.1;
Red cards shown – 2;
Fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 14%.
AEK Larnaca vs Crystal Palace: Match Prediction
The fact that the Cypriots can defend superbly and play for the result they need has been proven not only in the first leg of this UEFA Conference League round-of-16 tie. AEK Larnaca are not especially productive in attack and have scored just three goals in their last six matches in this competition. As a result, the home side place their main emphasis on defence, with one aim – not to concede, while up front they may be able to nick one decisive goal. In the islanders' previous seven matches in this tournament, they have allowed opponents to score only once.
Despite the huge gap in the strength of the Cypriot and English leagues, Crystal Palace have now gone two matches in a row unable to do anything against this opponent. The hosts defend skilfully, and the visitors simply have no antidote to such a deep, compact block. We believe the game in Cyprus will follow the same pattern as it did in London: the hosts are unlikely to play open football and will once again back themselves to earn a draw, then go through against the stronger side on penalties, while the away side may again struggle to find anyone capable of scoring past the impenetrable Alomerovic.
That is why we favour a low-scoring contest in this one.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
* For each team, the starting XI is taken from their most recent match in this competition.
